House prices on the rise, says government

The Antikythera Mechanism · Jun 10, 2009

House prices on the rise, says government

10 June, 2009

By Dan Stewart

Communities department figures reveal that the average price of a house rose 1.1% during April

House prices rose by 1.1% in April, according to official government figures released today.

According to the Department for Communities and Local Government's house price index, the average price paid for a home in the UK during April was £189,215, a 1.1% increase from the average in March (£187,193).

However, house prices in the UK were still 13% down compared with the same period last year. Despite April's increase, house prices fell by 3% in the quarter leading up to the end of the month.

The department said that the monthly increase was due to a 2% rise in the average price of terraced houses, a 1% rise for semi-detached houses, a 0.9% rise for flats and a 0.7% rise for detached houses. It was offset by a 0.7% fall in the average price of bungalows.

Prices for first-time buyers are 16% lower than at this time last year, and the prices for former owner-occupiers are 11.9% lower.

Could the market have bottomed out? UK Industrial & Manufacturing output is also on the up (BBC). Does this mean we can take off our tin hats and come out of the trenches and look for those little green shoots?

User removed 4 · Jun 10, 2009

dead cat bounce.

coventrygull · Jun 10, 2009

Just when I am looking to move

seagullsovergrimsby · Jun 10, 2009

I am hoping there will still be a lot of repos on the market when I look to move next year.

coventrygull · Jun 10, 2009

seagullsovergrimsby said:
I am hoping there will still be a lot of repos on the market when I look to move next year.

Sadly that will still be the case.

Uncle C · Jun 10, 2009

Just wait till interest rates start to go up, that will kill off any revival.

sully · Jun 10, 2009

Uncle C said:
Just wait till interest rates start to go up, that will kill off any revival.

An adviser to the MPC showed me a graph last week that showed no possibility of an interest rate increase in the next 2 years (based on projected inflation). He refused to comment on the graph ("draw your own conclusions" was all I got), but I hope it was right, as it might just mean I can afford my mortgage for a while longer!

There's definitely more Sale Agreed signs around mid Sussex now compared to a month ago, so you never know! We may have seen the bottom of the market now.

Uncle C · Jun 10, 2009

seagullsovergrimsby said:
I am hoping there will still be a lot of repos on the market when I look to move next year.

Repos are often not the bargains they look. Many Estate Agents know they draw people like a magnet looking to get a bargain. They then set 2 or 3 potential bidders against each other. I have often seen prices pushed up to equal those of a normal sale. In one case a 'refurbishment opportunity' fetched the same price as the one in good nick several doors away.

Another big difference is that with a normal sale, once you have agreed a price the property is taken off the market.
With a repo sale it is advertised and marketed right up to exchange.

coventrygull · Jun 10, 2009

sully said:
An adviser to the MPC showed me a graph last week that showed no possibility of an interest rate increase in the next 2 years (based on projected inflation). He refused to comment on the graph ("draw your own conclusions" was all I got), but I hope it was right, as it might just mean I can afford my mortgage for a while longer!

There's definitely more Sale Agreed signs around mid Sussex now compared to a month ago, so you never know! We may have seen the bottom of the market now.

Just wondering could it be that people are downsizing because of the recession

seagullsovergrimsby · Jun 10, 2009

When I move I dont want to be in the middle of a chain , so will favour a repo or a property with no onward chain.

sully · Jun 10, 2009

coventrygull said:
Just wondering could it be that people are downsizing because of the recession

In order to do that, someone still has to buy the house at the top end of the chain....
So probably not a big factor, though some are undoubtedly doing just that.

coventrygull · Jun 10, 2009

seagullsovergrimsby said:
When I move I dont want to be in the middle of a chain , so will favour a repo or a property with no onward chain.

Do you want to move to Coventry. Shouldn't be a chain when I move. Nice multi cultural area and all that

seagullsovergrimsby · Jun 10, 2009

coventrygull said:
Do you want to move to Coventry. Shouldn't be a chain when I move. Nice multi cultural area and all that

Will it be mandatory to vote BNP or will it be foisted on me after a while ? :lol:

Uncle C · Jun 10, 2009

sully said:
There's definitely more Sale Agreed signs around mid Sussex now compared to a month ago, so you never know! We may have seen the bottom of the market now.

The key point at the moment is that very few people are putting their houses up for sale creating a dramatic drop in supply, so supply and demand will push up the price for a short while.
There is particular demand from those people looking to move money out of savings where it gets about 1% and into property. There are a limited number of such people so this will burn itself out.

As stated above this is know as the dead cat bounce, but it's sentiment driven and the downward trend will then continue.

seagullsovergrimsby · Jun 10, 2009

The only people putting their property up for sale are committed to moving as they need to have a HIP prepared before it can go on the market.

coventrygull · Jun 10, 2009

sully said:
In order to do that, someone still has to buy the house at the top end of the chain....
So probably not a big factor, though some are undoubtedly doing just that.

But are the more expensive properties rising in price or going down

Uncle C · Jun 10, 2009

sully said:
An adviser to the MPC showed me a graph last week that showed no possibility of an interest rate increase in the next 2 years (based on projected inflation).

The truth is the MPC have absolutely no idea of what the consequences will be of the Quantitative Easing currently being applied by the Bank of England, because this is a tool that has seldom if ever been used.

Most experts would see it as inflationary which would blow their inflation predictions out the water.

Herr Tubthumper · Jun 10, 2009

Good old Gordon, I knew he'd fix the economy.

Storer68 · Jun 10, 2009

assumoing you can raise a loan

Gross mortgage lending declined to an estimated £10.4 billion in April, down 9% from £11.4 billion in March and 60% from £26.1 billion in April 2008, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

There is a slight fall for seasonal reasons as Easter fell in April this year (Easter was in March in 2008). Taken together, lending for March and April is down 57% on a year earlier.

CML director general Michael Coogan said:

“It’s still too early to spot a clear pattern of recovery in the housing market as some commentators have suggested.

“Activity remains weak, and we have said we will see volatility in monthly lending figures as we bounce along at the bottom of the market. Our forecast for gross lending of £145 billion in 2009 remains unchanged.”

Notes to editors

1. The Council of Mortgage Lenders' members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 98% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK. There are 11.1 million mortgages in the UK, with loans worth over £1.1 trillion.

2. The May gross lending estimate will be published on Thursday 18 June 2009.

Uncle C · Jun 11, 2009

Uncle C said:
Just wait till interest rates start to go up, that will kill off any revival.

As if by magic:

"Homeowners and buyers wanting to lock into cheap fixed rate mortgage will soon find rates hiked, a leading mortgage broker has warned.
Ray Boulger, senior technical manager at broker John Charcol, has urged borrowers to act fast as he predicts an imminent jump in interest rates.

Lenders' cost of funding for fixed rate mortgages, known as swap rates, has risen substantially over the past month, and a further sharp rise early this week looks likely to send rates on new deals up."

House prices on the rise, says government

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