Final points this season

[Reinelt 62]

How many more points are we and our rivals going to get this season?

Based on a strict mathematical formula that says any home team will beat any teams below it in the table and the next four teams above it, and that it will draw with the next eight above it, and lose to the rest, and working out the result equally for both current League position and current form over the last 8 games, produces these final points totals:

Plymouth 54
Millwall 44
Derby 43
ALBION 41
----------------
Sheff Wed 39
Crewe 32
Leicester 31

Leicester's problem is that they are the worst team in the League on form over the last 8 games and of their 8 remaining home games they have to play 5 of the current top 8. It's not going to finish like this of course, but it does make our home games against Leicester and Sheff Wendy must-wins....

Over to you!

 

[1066gull]

Can Leicester really go down?

Shocking to see Derby with us. They were gunning for the Premiership last season.

 

[ac gull]

My guess for us is 43 to 45 points

Reckon we will win about 3 or 4 more games and draw another 3 or 4 as well

Rest depends on 3 other teams being worse than us

Also not uncommon to see a team fall from mid table on a dreadful run about this time of year - was Crewe last year

Has anyone in mid table lost the last three games or so and looking like losing confidence - Southampton are the only ones I can think of re this

Just think - we have to win against Wolves and Stoke re last two games to send Saints down - how good would that be eh?

 

[brighton rock]

50 or your doomed

 

[1066gull]

50 or your doomed

It won't be that much as last season because a lot of teams have drawn a lot of games, taking points out of the table.

Southampton, Brighton and Wolves are them.....

 

[Jam The Man]

I don't think it'll need 51 this year either... what did the bottom of the table look like last season after 30 games? I know it'll be in the programme but they're up in the attic!

I reckon 49 would see us safe by far...

 

[algie]

Get your program out Jam and print up the results.Go on

 

[Jam The Man]

I'd love to, but the missus is in bed and the attic hatch makes more noise than a dump truck driving through a nitroglycerin plant.

 

[Gully]

Jam, do you want to buy a house with a quiet attic hatch, I am about to put mine on the market?

 

[Jam The Man]

Got to be honest Gully, it wouldn't be a deal beaker!

 

[Gully]

Oh well, was worth a try.

 

[fatboy]

How many more points are we and our rivals going to get this season?

Based on a strict mathematical formula that says any home team will beat any teams below it in the table and the next four teams above it, and that it will draw with the next eight above it, and lose to the rest, and working out the result equally for both current League position and current form over the last 8 games, produces these final points totals:

Does the mathematical formula recalculate the table after each game and then work out which opponents are above and below the team, or are all games calculated on current league standings?

 

[Woodchip]

Re: Re: Final points this season

Does the mathematical formula recalculate the table after each game and thedn work out which opponents are above and below the team, or are all games calculated on current leage standings?

I was wondering that.

Glad I'm not the only nerd on here.

 

[Vanity]

I don't think it'll need 51 this year either... what did the bottom of the table look like last season after 30 games? I know it'll be in the programme but they're up in the attic!

I reckon 49 would see us safe by far...

---------P---W-D-L-PTS
Ipswich 30 17 8 5 59
Wigan 30 16 9 5 57
Sunder 30 17 5 8 56
Reading 30 14 8 8 50
Derby 31 14 6 11 48
SheffU 30 13 9 8 48
Preston 30 13 7 10 46
Millwall 30 13 6 11 45
WestH 30 13 6 11 45
QPR 30 13 4 13 43
Leeds 30 10 11 11 41
Crewe 29 11 7 11 40
Burnley 28 10 10 8 40
Leicester29 9 12 8 39
Wolves 30 9 11 10 38
Stoke 30 10 8 12 38
Brighton 31 10 8 13 38
Watford 30 8 13 9 37
Cardiff 30 8 10 12 34
Plymouth 30 9 6 15 33
Coventry 30 8 8 14 32
Gilling 30 8 5 17 29
Forest 30 5 10 15 25
Rotherh 30 3 11 16 20

 

[bailey]

what did the bottom of the table look like last season after 30 games?

It's right here.

http://www.seagulls.premiumtv.co.uk/page/Match/LeagueTable/0,,10433~20050122,00.html

 

[bailey]

And you can get all of the archive tables match by match from here....

http://www.seagulls.premiumtv.co.uk/page/Match/FirstTeamFixtures/0,,10433~2004,00.html


(Jeez Premium TV actually provided something helpful for a change! )

 

[Jam The Man]

Nice one.. I stick with 49!

 

[BensGrandad]

I think that we will get 43 points with the team that is here now.

2 or 3 more players could take that up to 49/50 points.

 

[Yorkie]

---------P---W-D-L-PTS
Ipswich 30 17 8 5 59
Wigan 30 16 9 5 57
Sunder 30 17 5 8 56
Reading 30 14 8 8 50
Derby 31 14 6 11 48
SheffU 30 13 9 8 48
Preston 30 13 7 10 46
Millwall 30 13 6 11 45
WestH 30 13 6 11 45
QPR 30 13 4 13 43
Leeds 30 10 11 11 41
Crewe 29 11 7 11 40
Burnley 28 10 10 8 40
Leicester29 9 12 8 39
Wolves 30 9 11 10 38
Stoke 30 10 8 12 38
Brighton 31 10 8 13 38
Watford 30 8 13 9 37
Cardiff 30 8 10 12 34
Plymouth 30 9 6 15 33
Coventry 30 8 8 14 32
Gilling 30 8 5 17 29
Forest 30 5 10 15 25
Rotherh 30 3 11 16 20

That's after the Leeds match 28th Jan which was rearranged due to the FA cup day.
After 30 games we had 37 points. (Forest)
We then went on a 6 match losing streak and didn't pick up any points until March.

 

[Reinelt 62]

Re: Re: Final points this season

Does the mathematical formula recalculate the table after each game and then work out which opponents are above and below the team, or are all games calculated on current league standings?

Good question, fatboy

The formula would need to be re-calculated after each game, or set of games. Obviously if Leicester suddenly started winning League games, (and their current record is drawn 2 and lost 6 in the last 8, and won 1, drawn 5, and lost 8 in the last 14), they would gradually improve their final point tally.

The final points total is based 50% on the current League position after yesterday, and 50% on current form after yesterday. It would need to be refined again after the matches on 31 January.

As I wrote at the start I know it isn't going to end up like that, but this is as good a start point as any, and would indicate that, as its stands, we might just stay up by the skin of our teeth.

Now where's my, ahem, anorak?