[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 33 Update

[Mellotron]

#holdthenerve

Even a battling draw v Palace would be ok, with the fixtures we have after.

Just don't lose.

 

[nickbrighton]

A lot of negative comments on here, but last night was a zero expectation on both trackers so we are still on track for Europe. A win on Saturday would make a big difference.

And thats why we love the tracker-keeps things nicely in perspective

 

[Giraffe]

There hasn't been much mention of the fact that Aston Villa are a Champions League quarter finalist. You'd think based on some posts last night that we had just lost to some lower mid table team! Reality check.

 

[jcdenton08]

There hasn't been much mention of the fact that Aston Villa are a Champions League quarter finalist. You'd think based on some posts last night that we had just lost to some lower mid table team! Reality check.

Especially given it was a game that really could’ve gone either way until the second goal. They edged it, but it was never a 3-0 loss type of game. We’ve had some luck in games we’ve won, last night was one of those 55-45s against that we didn’t get

 

[Uh_huh_him]

#holdthenerve

Even a battling draw v Palace would be ok, with the fixtures we have after.

Just don't lose.

I have just totted up the average positions of each team's run in.

Team	Aggregate place of opponent​	Average position of opponents
Brighton	95	11.88
Newcastle	100	11.11
Bournemouth	82	10.25
Chelsea	89	9.89
Villa	78	9.75
Brentford	78	9.75
Fulham	77	9.63
Palace	69	7.67

We have the "easiest" run in, followed by Newcastle.

Newcastle's run in includes matches against us/Chelsea/Villa/Brentford.
Villa face Newcastle, Bournemouth and Fulham.

Which means there will be points won and lost in the push for 5th place
We only face one team (Newcastle at home) in direct competition for UCL.

It is definitely still within our own hands.
#holdthenerve

 

[Terry Connor]

Quick 'who will qualify for Europe?' update.
Still on track for 5 UCL places.
6th will be UEL spot and unaffected by any other cup win.
7th and here is the 'maybe' UEL place. This goes to either the FA Cup winners or 7th place if Cup winners are in the top 6. Man City or Forest are the two teams likely to be top 6 although Villa may slip in. Of course form could fall in the league and the cup winners may drop out the top 6, but that of course leaves a league spot for another team anyway.
8th if all above goes to form then 8th is free for the Conference unless Newcastle still have a hangover and fall to 8th or below but again see above for freeing up a place in the EPL if Newcastle drop down.
Regarding the league, you have to presume the top three will finish in those positions but I don't fancy the Chelsea run in.

So despite last night we are still in pole position for an 8th place finish, which would likely be at least enough for the Conference.

If Chelsea win this year's Conference and finish 6th (or 7th) then would this not free up an additional UEL spot?

 

[pigmanovich]

So despite last night we are still in pole position for an 8th place finish, which would likely be at least enough for the Conference.

If Chelsea win this year's Conference and finish 6th (or 7th) then would this not free up an additional UEL spot?

I believe the Conference League is the only European title that doesn't add a further European place to the winner's league but I could be mistaken

 

[Bob!]

So despite last night we are still in pole position for an 8th place finish, which would likely be at least enough for the Conference.

Only if a team that finishes above us wins the FA Cup?

 

[Hiheidi]

I have just totted up the average positions of each team's run in.

Team	Aggregate place of opponent​	Average position of opponents
Brighton	95	11.88
Newcastle	100	11.11
Bournemouth	82	10.25
Chelsea	89	9.89
Villa	78	9.75
Brentford	78	9.75
Fulham	77	9.63
Palace	69	7.67

We have the "easiest" run in, followed by Newcastle.

Newcastle's run in includes matches against us/Chelsea/Villa/Brentford.
Villa face Newcastle, Bournemouth and Fulham.

Which means there will be points won and lost in the push for 5th place
We only face one team (Newcastle at home) in direct competition for UCL.

It is definitely still within our own hands.
#holdthenerve

Plus, bear in mind that with first placed Liverpool still to play, that ups the average position of our upcoming opponents - but hopefully they'll be already celebrating by the penultimate game of the season.

 

[RandyWanger]

We have the "easiest" run in, followed by Newcastle.

anyone got the stats on teams we've beaten above vs below us. Feels like the easier the game, the slippery the banana.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

anyone got the stats on teams we've beaten above vs below us. Feels like the easier the game, the slippery the banana.

9 wins, 6 draws from 18 games against teams below us.
3 wins, 5 draws from 12 games against teams above us

8 games to come
2 against teams above us (both at home)
6 against teams below us ( 2 at home -WHU & LCFC)

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

9 wins, 6 draws from 18 games against teams below us.
3 wins, 5 draws from 12 games against teams above us

8 games to come
2 against teams above us (both at home)
6 against teams below us ( 2 at home -WHU & LCFC)

I was looking at the stats and what is encouraging is our best points return has been away to teams below us where we average over 2.1 points per game with a +10 goal difference. We also have more games to play against teams in this section than any other (Brentford, Palace, Spurs and Wolves).

 

[Giraffe]

Both trackers indicating a finish of 8th but tight on the European tracker between 7th-10th

 

[Giraffe]

Bugger, That's it. 1 below Europe, so not too much harm done, arguably. But bugger. And p$%s and s*&t.

 

[A1X]

So we’ve been on track with the Europe tracker all season, and we still are?

My sheets shall remain dry for now

 

[DavePage]

we expected one point from the last three games and thats what we got

 

[ROSM]

My bigger worry is only 1 defeat expected in next 7 for Europe (tracker has 3 wins and 3 draws).

That's a tall order

 

[Uh_huh_him]

My bigger worry is only 1 defeat expected in next 7 for Europe (tracker has 3 wins and 3 draws).

That's a tall order

or 3 wins from

• Leicester H
• Brentford A
• Wolves A
• West Ham H

Then 1 win from

• Newcastle H
• Liverpool H
• Spurs A

 

[ROSM]

or 3 wins from

• Leicester H
• Brentford A
• Wolves A
• West Ham H

Then 1 win from

• Newcastle H
• Liverpool H
• Spurs A

That's the spirit. Ever the optimist

 

[Giraffe]

My bigger worry is only 1 defeat expected in next 7 for Europe (tracker has 3 wins and 3 draws).

That's a tall order

You're right but overall the tracker has been very close all season so you'd hope that over 7 games we would roughly do what it suggests. Albeit it didn't work for a bit before Christmas!