[Albion] Chelsea: "A supercharged Brighton"

[Justice]

Sadly I suspect they will scrape their way to fifth or above as they must still have enough games left against the rubbish teams, but <Kevin Keegan voice> I would love it, LOVE it if they failed to make the Champions League and it affected their sponsorship targets.

Hopefully their players will all be fuming at having to go and play in the utterly pointless FIFA World Cash Grab Club Cup when they should be on the beach, mentally and physically switching off from a long season, and it will lead to a load more fatigue-based injuries for them, not just in the summer but throughout the whole of next season.

Only Ipswich in their last 7 the rest who knows especially if Palmer continues being shite

 

[Cordwainer]

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness.”- Oscar Wilde.

 

[Professor Plum]

Sadly I suspect they will scrape their way to fifth or above as they must still have enough games left against the rubbish teams, but <Kevin Keegan voice> I would love it, LOVE it if they failed to make the Champions League and it affected their sponsorship targets.

They have quite a tough run-in actually. They play only Ipswich, I think from the very bottom. Their final four games are against Liverpool, Forest, Newcastle and Man Utd. They also play Brentford and Fulham, and a resurgent Everton. Next game is vs Tottenham who are always unpredictable.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

They have quite a tough run-in actually. They play only Ipswich, I think from the very bottom. Their final four games are against Liverpool, Forest, Newcastle and Man Utd. They also play Brentford and Fulham, and a resurgent Everton. Next game is vs Tottenham who are always unpredictable.

Chelsea nearly always beat Spurs, don't they? But other than that, yes, tough run in.

 

[keaton]

Committing to pay players like Mudryk a £100k PW for another 6 years is an interesting definition of future proofing

 

[keaton]

Per the BBC article: "The accounting model makes some sense as the long contracts and amortisation - spreading the cost of a transfer over an extended period - have enabled Chelsea to get players like Caicedo on comparatively 'lower' £180,000-a-week wages, despite him costing a British transfer record £115m when joining in 2023 from Brighton." Well, yes, that was true when they bought Caicedo, but the Premier League (and UEFA) quickly closed that "loophole", and for FFP/PSR purposes, 5 years is the max period that a player's contract can be amortised over.

Whilst I loathe Chelsea and everything they stand for, in one sense their model is not too dissimilar to ours - in other words, putting a huge amount of effort in to identifying and developing young talent. However, Chelsea are doing so on such a scale that they simply treat players like commodities to be traded, whereas everything I read and hear about BHAFC is that we are genuinely focussed on what's best for the player, as well as the club.

Isn't almost every club's model pretty much trying to identify and develop young players?

 

[Change at Barnham]

One major difference is that we have a couple of quality goalkeepers and some decent strikers.

Chelsea are still minus a goalkeeper and have no one to cover for the injured Nicholas Jackson upfront.
Still, a couple of teenage midfielders coming in the summer to be loaned out should solve it.

 

[Jackthelad]

The devil counterfeits.

 

[Jim in the West]

Isn't almost every club's model pretty much trying to identify and develop young players?

Yes - but in our case we also aim to make very significant profits from player trading (in a way that the "Big 6", etc, don't need to). The Chelsea model is similar, but on a much bigger scale, and I think the distinction is that we actually seem to care about the players we sign...

 

[keaton]

Yes - but in our case we also aim to make very significant profits from player trading (in a way that the "Big 6", etc, don't need to). The Chelsea model is similar, but on a much bigger scale, and I think the distinction is that we actually seem to care about the players we sign...

I'd agree with that.

I don't think Chelsea's under Boehly differs that much from when Abramovic was in charge. They've signed lots of youngsters for years. Previously they bought cheap sent out on loan and sold most for a decent profit. Now they're buying big and churning them through the first team.

 

[Bodian]

They have quite a tough run-in actually. They play only Ipswich, I think from the very bottom. Their final four games are against Liverpool, Forest, Newcastle and Man Utd. They also play Brentford and Fulham, and a resurgent Everton. Next game is vs Tottenham who are always unpredictable.

I think that's actually two from the very bottom isn't it?

 

[Stato]

"Supercharged Brighton" only works if you buy players for less than they end up being worth. Okay these are the notoriously inaccurate Transfermarkt estimates of player value, but if it's similarly inaccurate for both clubs, it gives a general guide to the point. They have invested in order to lose money. They think that they can step into Brighton and Benfica's position, sign players direct from lower leagues, develop and flip them. They can't because they're too close to the top of the food chain. The immediate expectations are too high and players have to be very special to increase their value, especially if they were bought for very high fees in the first place. They also have few other clubs to flip them to, because they are dealing in financial terms that others cannot dwarf. Really , the only players that they have made money on are the home grown ones who they didn't buy: Hall, Gallagher, Mount, Loftus Cheek etc. All of whom were at the club before the current regime arrived.

The table is players signed for a fee since 22/23. I've kept Chelsea's to players over €10m for time's sake and only went back to 22/23, because including our profit on Caicedo feels like rubbing salt into their wound. You'll note that our model seems to take time for players to increase in value and that the more you pay for someone, the harder it seems to be to increase their value.

The unspoken bit in this is the data. In betting terms, Bloom seeks opportunity where the data suggests that something is underpriced. Boehly is the big money gambler who throws away his money on short priced favourites and gets fleeced by the market.

Chelsea					Brighton
Player	Transfer Fee	Current Estimated Value (or fee when sold)	Difference		Player	Transfer Fee	Current Estimated Value (or fee when sold)	Difference
Quenda	52.14 €	30.00 €	-22.14 €		Rutter	46.70 €	32.00 €	-14.70 €
Estevao	34.00 €	50.00 €	16.00 €		Minteh	35.00 €	30.00 €	-5.00 €
Essugo	22.27 €	8.00 €	-14.27 €		Wieffer	32.00 €	27.00 €	-5.00 €
Paez	10.00 €	12.00 €	2.00 €		Gruda	31.50 €	25.00 €	-6.50 €
Neto	60.00 €	50.00 €	-10.00 €		Kadioglu	30.00 €	30.00 €	0.00 €
Felix	52.00 €	30.00 €	-22.00 €		O'Riley	29.50 €	22.00 €	-7.50 €
Dewsbury Hall	35.40 €	22.00 €	-13.40 €		Tzimas	25.00 €	10.00 €	-15.00 €
Jorgenson	25.00 €	20.00 €	-5.00 €		Osman	19.50 €	16.00 €	-3.50 €
Anselmino	16.50 €	8.00 €	-8.50 €		Gomez	13.00 €	13.00 €	0.00 €
Veiga	14.00 €	10.00 €	-4.00 €		Cashin	10.75 €	8.00 €	-2.75 €
Wiley	10.10 €	8.00 €	-2.10 €		Yalcouye	7.00 €	13.00 €	6.00 €
Caicedo	116.00 €	80.00 €	-36.00 €		Pedro	34.20 €	50.00 €	15.80 €
Lavia	62.10 €	40.00 €	-22.10 €		Baleba	27.00 €	35.00 €	8.00 €
Nkunku	60.00 €	45.00 €	-15.00 €		Verbruggen	20.00 €	25.00 €	5.00 €
Palmer	47.00 €	130.00 €	83.00 €		Igor	16.50 €	22.00 €	5.50 €
Disasi	45.00 €	25.00 €	-20.00 €		Barco	9.15 €	6.00 €	-3.15 €
Jackson	37.00 €	55.00 €	18.00 €		Estupinan	17.80 €	30.00 €	12.20 €
Ugochukwu	27.00 €	20.00 €	-7.00 €		Enciso	11.60 €	22.00 €	10.40 €
Sanchez	23.00 €	20.00 €	-3.00 €		Gilmour	8.30 €	14.00 €	5.70 €
Petrovic	16.00 €	18.00 €	2.00 €		Adringa	8.00 €	30.00 €	22.00 €
Washington	16.00 €	9.00 €	-7.00 €		Buonanotte	6.00 €	22.00 €	16.00 €
Angelo	15.00 €	23.00 €	8.00 €		Ayari	4.00 €	17.00 €	13.00 €
Fernandez	121.00 €	75.00 €	-46.00 €
W Fofana	80.40 €	27.00 €	-53.40 €
Mudryk	70.00 €	30.00 €	-40.00 €
Cucurella	65.00 €	30.00 €	-35.00 €
Sterling	56.20 €	15.00 €	-41.20 €
Koulibaly	41.90 €	8.00 €	-33.90 €
Badiashile	38.00 €	25.00 €	-13.00 €
Madueke	35.00 €	40.00 €	5.00 €
Gusto	30.00 €	35.00 €	5.00 €
Chukwuemeka	18.00 €	15.00 €	-3.00 €
Casedi	14.86 €	10.00 €	-4.86 €
Santos	12.50 €	25.00 €	12.50 €
Aubameyang	12.00 €	0.00 €	-12.00 €
D Fofana	12.00 €	8.50 €	-3.50 €
	1,402.37 €	1,056.50 €	-345.87 €			438.50 €	482.00 €	56.50 €

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Some fans wanted to 'supercharge' the Chelsea manager straight to the job centre a few weeks ago, so forgive me if I dismiss this content under 'page-filler during an international break'.

 

[LamieRobertson]

buy high sell low? I see the connection

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

A hideous imitation more like.

Chelsea are to Brighton what The Sweet ("Brickies in drag) were to beautiful women, and a decent rock band.
.

 

[Professor Plum]

I think that's actually two from the very bottom isn't it?

I listen to their podcasts now and then. They are terrified of Man Utd who they say ‘always turn up’ against them just as Man City fans complain of the same thing. Add to that a few signs that Utd are finally getting their act together and I think their fears are fairly justified.

 

[Eeyore]

In fairness, that billion pound spend has gained them a full two points over us this season.

 

[Me and my Monkey]

Chelsea are to Brighton what The Sweet ("Brickies in drag) were to beautiful women, and a decent rock band.
.

View attachment 198794

I didn't really understand that analogy, but I hope you're not disrespecting the Sweet, who I adored as a youngster. Brian Connolly a tormented sex God with a beautiful voice. Very much underrated.

 

[Stato]

Some fans wanted to 'supercharge' the Chelsea manager straight to the job centre a few weeks ago, so forgive me if I dismiss this content under 'page-filler during an international break'.

I'm not sure that Maresca is over that hump. Their last six games form is mid table, having won three and lost three. However the wins were against West Ham, Leicester and Southampton. Apart from the early months of the season, they've been flat track bullies this term. The last time they beat someone in the top half of the table was 1 December. Since Christmas they've played twelve EPL games. Five of those were against teams in the bottom six and they took 15 points from 18. Seven were against teams in the top 14 and they haven't beaten any of them, taking only 2 points from a possible 21 through January draws with Bournemouth and Palace.

 

[portslade seagull]

Still amazes me that they are within PSR