[Politics] Gary's Economics

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Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
18,481
Fiveways
I didn't know that.
VAT was also at 8% (for most goods when she came in)

Both NI and VAT hit lower incomes disproportionately
35% of Government revenue comes from VAT and NI

So let's have no more of the "Top 10% of earners pay 60% of the UK tax bill"
It's always been bollocks.
Oops. I did actually mean VAT: apologies.
NI was at 6.5% in 1979. This is if I'm reading this doc correctly, which I stumbled across by doing a basic search -- and I'm glad I did, this is really helpful info from the IFS

 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
18,481
Fiveways
My P60 has just come through

Last year I earnt £64,747.20
My tax was:
Income Tax £14,896.34
National Insurance £3,304.92
Effective income tax rate 28.11%

My understanding is that if someone lives off dividends from investments which delivers the same yearly income
Their tax bill would be
Income Tax £8,141.05
National Insurance £0
Effective Income tax rate 12.57%

I think the same is true if they live off income from rented properties
My income also provides additional income for the government from Employer's NI contribution.

Would welcome some tax/Finance advisor experts view on this to validate my understanding is correct.
Because on the face of things, it's a f***ing rip off for working people.
Again, thanks for posting. I've been saying for a long time that taxation should shift from labour (and employers) to assets. Mind you, this is via Piketty who Stevenson uses. If you want to see an alternative proposal for taxation, see ch17 of Capital and Ideology
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
13,913
Again, thanks for posting. I've been saying for a long time that taxation should shift from labour (and employers) to assets. Mind you, this is via Piketty who Stevenson uses. If you want to see an alternative proposal for taxation, see ch17 of Capital and Ideology
Cheers will have to read up.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
59,571
Faversham
I find him rather self-aggrandising - by various accounts he was not nearly as successful in his career as he likes to make out.
I get the impression he decided that doing a Sunak (getting rich betting against the pound) was not a great way to deploy his talents*.

The arguments hinge on it being a zero sum economy, something the likes of @BenGarfield would contest.
And for Thatcher to win 3 terms, more people would have to be better off, not just think they are, or will become so at some point, surely?
Thatcher can't have been only about demonizing the loony left (although it was an easy target in the 80s)
And what with politics being the art of the possible, no matter how 'correct' Corbynomics may have been, people didn't want it.

The aftertiming over greed and fear may be doing a bit of heavy lifting in that narrative.

I listened to most of it but fell asleep towards the end (I'm on heavy drugs after surgery).

My take is that in any short term (a year) it is basically a zero sum economy and money cannot just be printed (sorry Ben) so I am OK with the premises.
I also like the sound of taxing the rich. If he is correct that so much wealth is in the hands of so few, it will be impossible for all that money to be disappeared, and the impact of taking it back will be huge.

However getting people to vote for an attack on the rich is going to be hard for those who are 'OK' off to contemplate.
Plus, the mortgage slaves are risk averse. I know I used to be. Now I am, on behalf of my son.

The question is if he is right, how can he effect change?

*That said, there is abandoning greed, and not having a tatty kitchen....so you may be correct.
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
13,913
I get the impression he decided that doing a Sunak (getting rich betting against the pound) was not a great way to deploy his talents*.


The question is if he is right, how can he effect change?

*That said, there is abandoning greed, and not having a tatty kitchen....so you may be correct.
He is right about the most important thing - The rich are getting richer and using that increased wealth to buy assets.
The cost of housing has been outstripping Salary increases for decades. Even after a couple of recessions.

He is doing the only thing he can do.
Educate the masses that inequality within the current tax system is the cause of the problem. Not Immigrants, the unemployed, or trade unions.

He's doing a good job.
I'm a life-long leftie, leaning more towards Corbyn than Blair. Before I started listening to him, I assumed that the top 5% were paying top level of tax on the vast majority of their income. They don't, they pay less than I do.
I took as fact the argument that the top 10% provide 60% of UK tax revenues. They don't they pay about 15% of Tax revenues.

Labour need to get on board with him and start making a very straightforward argument about progressive taxation.
Because the current system is broken.

Until this argument resonates with the electorate, governments will stick with the same old Income tax/NI rises, good old Austerity and low growth.
They must know it's a flawed approach, but they'll get kicked out of power because the electorate believe the guff they've been sold about how important the rich are, to the economy.
 




Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
59,571
Faversham
Indeed, see the critiques above.
Somewhat predictable that the main critique seems to be 'he wasn't as good as he says'. Clearly he has an ego, but reading around this seems that it depends (inevitably) on what criteria you use. It is telling that what seems to upset other traders most is not what he is saying, but the insinuation that someone (especially someone like him) might have been better than them!

On the ' why doesn't he just donate his wealth to HMRC'. He gets this almost EVERY time he is interviewed and has answered it very simply. Him paying more tax won't make any real difference and why should be? He is clear that he will happily pay more tax when all rich people are required to.

His analysis is more interesting and more complex than just 'tax wealth not work'. That is his conclusion, but he draws on various and multiple (respected) sources to get there. Piketty, Zucman, Ha Choon Chang and many others. He also continues to put his money where is mouth is, betting on his theories being right and winning.

He's winding all the right people up, which is usually a good sign.

What he does do well is to undermine (correctly) the idea that there is any such thing as 'mainstream economics'. What there is is a centre right set of economic ideas that have dominated globally for the last 50 years, not because they are 'right' but because they suit the rich and powerful.

From what i have seen (i havent read his book) I think he understates the importance of the economics of power (which makes me increasingly pessimistic that we can reverse inequality) and he misses some important globalised elements of how wealth is being accumulated (the rich are not just acquiring assets from our own government but, via global investment vehicles which are often backed by public 'development' funds, from governments all over the world).
Indeed. When he touched on the emerging new right (who have never had real power in most of Europe - yet) who are ramping up their madcap racist and classist schemes, for example vilifying foreigners in the hope of attracting more votes, my head was filled with the buzzing of a great number of Farage-style whataboutery tropes and gaslighting comments. But that is obvious stuff.

Sadly without documented evidence, any counter-narrative can be destroyed, then the electoral outcome will depend on who has the best oratory and rhetorical prowess (unless the incumbents have seriously f***ed up, like the Major and Johnson/Truss gang).

I may like what this bloke says but if his solutions are is to gain traction they needs to do so because they are right,
or they will fail and the electorate will lurch right again.
If they gain traction just because people are fed up and are in a mood to try anything (the 'breath of fresh air' impetus that is currently carrying Farage along) I doubt the majority will buy into it (as they haven't - yet' with Farage) and political power will elude them.

And finally he is wrong that the pendulum will swing between Farage on the right and the rest (labour and tory) in the middle.
It will swing between labour and tory, with (presently) Badenough vacuuming the mad right element, leaving Farage only with the 'breath of fresh air' voters. Who probably don't vote assiduously anyway.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
59,571
Faversham
He is right about the most important thing - The rich are getting richer and using that increased wealth to buy assets.
The cost of housing has been outstripping Salary increases for decades. Even after a couple of recessions.

He is doing the only thing he can do.
Educate the masses that inequality within the current tax system is the cause of the problem. Not Immigrants, the unemployed, or trade unions.

He's doing a good job.
I'm a life-long leftie, leaning more towards Corbyn than Blair. Before I started listening to him, I assumed that the top 5% were paying top level of tax on the vast majority of their income. They don't, they pay less than I do.
I took as fact the argument that the top 10% provide 60% of UK tax revenues. They don't they pay about 15% of Tax revenues.

Labour need to get on board with him and start making a very straightforward argument about progressive taxation.
Because the current system is broken.

Until this argument resonates with the electorate, governments will stick with the same old Income tax/NI rises, good old Austerity and low growth.
They must know it's a flawed approach, but they'll get kicked out of power because the electorate believe the guff they've been sold about how important the rich are, to the economy.
Agree.

That leads on the the art of the possible.
If Starmer had presented that case before the election we would have had Sunak back in number 10.
If Starmer goes in balls-deep now with tax hikes for the rich the right will have a field day in the media,
and if anyone can show one middle class voter worse off, the 'attack on the middle class' trope will grow,
and a second term for Starmer will be off the agenda,
unless it is all timed right.

"Says one thing, does another"

I can hear it all now.
This is why winning hearts and minds is so important.
Sadly there are still millions of fools and knaves out there who will always prefer to vote for the iron fist and not the helping hand.

I suppose this (whether a tax hike will be implemented and successfully) will depend on where one draws the line .
From your numbers maybe only the top 10% of earners need be targeted.
Make that target clear and the policy could work.
But how? It would have to be windfall or it will pick off many lower income earners as any semi-automated process will do,
(vide the 'attack' on 'ordinary farmers').
A windfall tax is a one off.
But a windfall tax of the magnitude needed would be very hard to pull off.
Here we are wandering hopefully into 'where there is a will there is a way' territory.
Can all that be sold to an electorate?
Or will Starmer change policy 'due to circumstances' (always a good one, but you can only do it once) in the first term and effectively mug the rich?
I hope he does, and he may do so, but it will need careful planning and deployment
Somehow I can't see Rachel from accounts leading on this....
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
13,913
Agree.

That leads on the the art of the possible.
If Starmer had presented that case before the election we would have had Sunak back in number 10.
If Starmer goes in balls-deep now with tax hikes for the rich the right will have a field day in the media,
and if anyone can show one middle class voter worse off, the 'attack on the middle class' trope will grow,
and a second term for Starmer will be off the agenda,
unless it is all timed right.

"Says one thing, does another"

I can hear it all now.
This is why winning hearts and minds is so important.
Sadly there are still millions of fools and knaves out there who will always prefer to vote for the iron fist and not the helping hand.

I suppose this (whether a tax hike will be implemented and successfully) will depend on where one draws the line .
From your numbers maybe only the top 10% of earners need be targeted.
Make that target clear and the policy could work.
But how? It would have to be windfall or it will pick off many lower income earners as any semi-automated process will do,
(vide the 'attack' on 'ordinary farmers').
A windfall tax is a one off.
But a windfall tax of the magnitude needed would be very hard to pull off.
Here we are wandering hopefully into 'where there is a will there is a way' territory.
Can all that be sold to an electorate?
Or will Starmer change policy 'due to circumstances' (always a good one, but you can only do it once) in the first term and effectively mug the rich?
I hope he does, and he may do so, but it will need careful planning and deployment
Somehow I can't see Rachel from accounts leading on this....
Agreed. The first step is to change hearts and minds.

This will become easier as the boomers die off and the Gen Xers realise they need to sell off their homes to help their kids/grand kids get on the ladder or pay for the carers they will need.
The millennials and Gen Z get the argument far quicker, as it resonates with their lived experience ( just a shame so few of them vote.)

I hoped the Starmer Government were keeping quiet about their plans, because they had a strategy to move to a fairer tax system, over time.
Then they raised employers NI contributions....

I suspect Labour won't change tack until they go through the debrief of how they lost power and blew a massive majority in a single term.
 




AZ Gull

@SeagullsAcademy @seagullsacademy.bsky.social
Oct 14, 2003
13,794
Chandler, AZ
Another quick Google confirms that US citizens pay tax on earnt income and dividends at exactly the same rate.
It's income after all.
That isn't true.

In 2024 for earned income, the first $11,600 of taxable income was taxed at 10%, the next band up to $47,150 was taxed at 12% and the next band up to $100,525 was taxed at 22%.

Dividend income was taxed at 15%.
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
13,913
That isn't true.

In 2024 for earned income, the first $11,600 of taxable income was taxed at 10%, the next band up to $47,150 was taxed at 12% and the next band up to $100,525 was taxed at 22%.

Dividend income was taxed at 15%.
Thanks for clarifying.
That's a shame - I thought there was a sensible and easy approach to taxation.
Should have known it was too good to be true.
 


albionalba

Football with optimism
NSC Patron
Aug 31, 2023
410
Not where I want
  • Governments are wasteful and private companies are more efficient

My P60 has just come through

Last year I earnt £64,747.20
My tax was:
Income Tax £14,896.34
National Insurance £3,304.92
Effective income tax rate 28.11%

My understanding is that if someone lives off dividends from investments which delivers the same yearly income
Their tax bill would be
Income Tax £8,141.05
National Insurance £0
Effective Income tax rate 12.57%

I think the same is true if they live off income from rented properties
My income also provides additional income for the government from Employer's NI contribution.

Would welcome some tax/Finance advisor experts view on this to validate my understanding is correct.
Because on the face of things, it's a f***ing rip off for working people.
Sorry, slow to catch up on the discussion and would echo thanks for posting this example. Another aspect to add is that if the earner in your comparison shielded some of their investment income (such as property rents) via a limited company they would probably be able to offset other costs (anything from a vehicle down to part of their non-food shopping such as cleaning materials etc) and reduce tax further. They could also take part of that income as a small tax free dividend. Whilst we do need the limited company framework to underpin genuine start-ups and genuine attempts at building businesses and creating employment, allowing the same framework to be used as a representation for trading around investment income, especially property, needs a major overhaul to unlock the parity we need. Unfortunately HMRC doesn't have the resources to pick apart many small company accounts but I think if you changed the rules of what really constituted a genuine 'trade' and substantially increased the statutory liability on all professional advisers such as accountants to recover tax for HMRC under these new rules it could help address this. Essentially there needs to be a big differentiator between (say) a proper high street business doing their trade and trying to survive vs someone with investments portraying themselves as similarly valuable to society and using the same company accounts system as a genuine trader.
 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
18,481
Fiveways
Sorry, slow to catch up on the discussion and would echo thanks for posting this example. Another aspect to add is that if the earner in your comparison shielded some of their investment income (such as property rents) via a limited company they would probably be able to offset other costs (anything from a vehicle down to part of their non-food shopping such as cleaning materials etc) and reduce tax further. They could also take part of that income as a small tax free dividend. Whilst we do need the limited company framework to underpin genuine start-ups and genuine attempts at building businesses and creating employment, allowing the same framework to be used as a representation for trading around investment income, especially property, needs a major overhaul to unlock the parity we need. Unfortunately HMRC doesn't have the resources to pick apart many small company accounts but I think if you changed the rules of what really constituted a genuine 'trade' and substantially increased the statutory liability on all professional advisers such as accountants to recover tax for HMRC under these new rules it could help address this. Essentially there needs to be a big differentiator between (say) a proper high street business doing their trade and trying to survive vs someone with investments portraying themselves as similarly valuable to society and using the same company accounts system as a genuine trader.
Thank you also for posting: very informative. HMRC has been run down enormously all in the name of 'cutting red tape', 'getting out of the way of the entrepreneurial spirit', etc. I don't even think you'd need too many more staff in order to accrue substantially more revenue by targeting the malpractices that the current system facilitates: AI ought to be able to pick up on this and devise a new framework in line with your suggestions.
 


schmunk

Well-used member
Jan 19, 2018
11,002
Mid mid mid Sussex
That isn't true.

In 2024 for earned income, the first $11,600 of taxable income was taxed at 10%, the next band up to $47,150 was taxed at 12% and the next band up to $100,525 was taxed at 22%.

Dividend income was taxed at 15%.
The lower dividend rate (0% / 15% / 20% depending on total income) only applies to dividends on US company shares held for at least 60 days - known as "qualifying dividends".

"Ordinary dividends" from non-US shares, or those held for shorter periods, are taxed at income tax rates up to 37% (+ state/city income tax).

The US also has a concept of "short-term capital gains" (on assets held for less than one year) which are taxed at income tax rates as above, as opposed to "long-term capital gains" which are taxed at the dividend rates (but with different brackets).
 
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Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
13,913
Sorry, slow to catch up on the discussion and would echo thanks for posting this example. Another aspect to add is that if the earner in your comparison shielded some of their investment income (such as property rents) via a limited company they would probably be able to offset other costs (anything from a vehicle down to part of their non-food shopping such as cleaning materials etc) and reduce tax further. They could also take part of that income as a small tax free dividend. Whilst we do need the limited company framework to underpin genuine start-ups and genuine attempts at building businesses and creating employment, allowing the same framework to be used as a representation for trading around investment income, especially property, needs a major overhaul to unlock the parity we need. Unfortunately HMRC doesn't have the resources to pick apart many small company accounts but I think if you changed the rules of what really constituted a genuine 'trade' and substantially increased the statutory liability on all professional advisers such as accountants to recover tax for HMRC under these new rules it could help address this. Essentially there needs to be a big differentiator between (say) a proper high street business doing their trade and trying to survive vs someone with investments portraying themselves as similarly valuable to society and using the same company accounts system as a genuine trader.

The situation highlights the need for a thorough review of the whole tax system and how government revenue is targeted.
The current system has a great many legal ways of avoiding tax, if your income doesn't come from PAYE.

Dividend tax
ISA tax wrappers
Accounting loopholes

The system is completely reliant on hitting people living off PAYE income, for everything they can get.
No wonder the young generation are completely disillusioned with the concept of employment.
 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
18,481
Fiveways
The situation highlights the need for a thorough review of the whole tax system and how government revenue is targeted.
The current system has a great many legal ways of avoiding tax, if your income doesn't come from PAYE.

Dividend tax
ISA tax wrappers
Accounting loopholes

The system is completely reliant on hitting people living off PAYE income, for everything they can get.
No wonder the young generation are completely disillusioned with the concept of employment.
Those of us in our 50s are too because this has been going on for decades. Add in that I've had 14 years of real-terms pay cuts, and the disillusionment spreads further.
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
13,913
Those of us in our 50s are too because this has been going on for decades. Add in that I've had 14 years of real-terms pay cuts, and the disillusionment spreads further.
Yeah same here.

I have had two pay increments in the past 10 years - both under inflation.
I did an exercise of applying a cpi increment to my 2014 salary - turns out I'm over 10k (before tax) worse off

But I'm 10 years off paying off a mortgage at £900 a month on a 4 bedroom house.
My daughter's paying slightly less than that, for her share of rent in a 2 bedroom flat.
 


AZ Gull

@SeagullsAcademy @seagullsacademy.bsky.social
Oct 14, 2003
13,794
Chandler, AZ
The lower dividend rate (0% / 15% / 20% depending on total income) only applies to dividends on US company shares held for at least 60 days - known as "qualifying dividends".

"Ordinary dividends" from non-US shares, or those held for shorter periods, are taxed at income tax rates up to 37% (+ state/city income tax).

The US also has a concept of "short-term capital gains" (on assets held for less than one year) which are taxed at income tax rates as above, as opposed to "long-term capital gains" which are taxed at the dividend rates (but with different brackets).
I've been filing a US tax return for 23 years now.... but thanks for the mansplaining.
 






dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,896
The reason dividends have always been taxed at lower rates than earned income is because dividends are paid out of profits which have already been taxed. If a limited company pays its director £1m salary, it pays £250k less tax because salary is a deductible expense from profit. The director then pays £450k tax so the government has netted £200k. (NIC doesn't have a huge impact because it's at full rate for little of that figure.)

If the £1m is paid as a dividend, the director pays £390k tax and the company's tax is £250k higher because a dividend is not an allowable deduction from profit.
 


dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,896
My P60 has just come through

Last year I earnt £64,747.20
My tax was:
Income Tax £14,896.34
National Insurance £3,304.92
Effective income tax rate 28.11%

My understanding is that if someone lives off dividends from investments which delivers the same yearly income
Their tax bill would be
Income Tax £8,141.05
National Insurance £0
Effective Income tax rate 12.57%

I think the same is true if they live off income from rented properties
My income also provides additional income for the government from Employer's NI contribution.

Would welcome some tax/Finance advisor experts view on this to validate my understanding is correct.
Because on the face of things, it's a f***ing rip off for working people.
Dividends are taxed at a lower rate (because they are out of taxed income, as above) but rental profits are taxed at the same rate as earned income. On £64,747, the income tax due would be nothing on the first £12,570, then 20% on the next £37,700, and 40% on the rest - total £13,323 by my reckoning. Have you any other unearned income that reduced your tax code, perhaps? Or benefits in kind?

You're right that dividend income and rental income don't get charged NIC.
 


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