[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[beorhthelm]

Mandelson is suggesting everyone double down on the existing, unworkable plan.

Apparently he thinks that’s what qualifies as a “very radical reset”.

is there a workable plan floating around? mulling it over, seems to me that an actual peace deal is impossible as neither side would agree to basic conditions the other might have. a peacekeeper force is fanciful as to get there Russia would have to withdraw and accept European - NATO - troops into Ukraine, one of the purposes the invasion was supposed to avoid. a ceasefire might be conceivable, as long as West maintain sanctions, otherwise its Russia taking current lands by default, but why else would Russia agree. long and short, i dont see any practical end in foreseeable unless one side capitulates their position.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Speculating:

There’s definitely shades of playing all sides in this. Europe needs to buy time but it also won’t want Trump to lose interest.

Another angle is Putin - the reported plan for a 1 month “partial ceasefire” can only be to force Putin to show his intentions.

If he honours it to prove Trump right then he can agree to the next ceasefire as well. If he refuses, Trump is proven wrong.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

I think Europe need to be very careful here as we may get blindsided again. It seems everyone believes Trump can’t be trusted and may well be in Putins pocket but we are still pushing for US to end this.

If he is on Putins side then he will keep disrupting and looking to avoid a peace that favours anyone but Putin. Hopefully Europe has a backup plan as things are sure to collapse again if Trump doesn’t get an agreement that suits him/Putin. Basically back to square one with the good guys left to protect Ukraine.

FWIW I think Trump is probably not a Russian asset but he has carved out some sort of deal with Putin. Europe will be left on the sidelines and need to be prepared to go alone against whatever situation we find ourselves in.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Appalling headline from the BBC!

 

[Eeyore]

is there a workable plan floating around? mulling it over, seems to me that an actual peace deal is impossible as neither side would agree to basic conditions the other might have. a peacekeeper force is fanciful as to get there Russia would have to withdraw and accept European - NATO - troops into Ukraine, one of the purposes the invasion was supposed to avoid. a ceasefire might be conceivable, as long as West maintain sanctions, otherwise its Russia taking current lands by default, but why else would Russia agree. long and short, i dont see any practical end in foreseeable unless one side capitulates their position.

I agree, there isn't a practical end. The US support, along with the European support, was only ever enough to peg the Russians back but not to drive them out. It was always going to be the situation. Ukraine cannot expel the Russians with firepower alone, it needs soldiers. And that is where the West held back. Understandably.

I don't know what now. Trump hasn't even gone neutral. In his quest for real estate he is siding with Putin. So Europe is alone. Dark days.

What annoys me is that America has been meddling in Ukraine long before all this, and now they jump to the other side. Shameless. Or should we say, the Trump administration is shameless. But we knew that anyway.

 

[Insel affe]

Appalling headline from the BBC!

View attachment 197673

He can feck off, defence secretary my arse....
Fox news presenter

 

[SouthSaxon]

is there a workable plan floating around? mulling it over, seems to me that an actual peace deal is impossible as neither side would agree to basic conditions the other might have. a peacekeeper force is fanciful as to get there Russia would have to withdraw and accept European - NATO - troops into Ukraine, one of the purposes the invasion was supposed to avoid. a ceasefire might be conceivable, as long as West maintain sanctions, otherwise its Russia taking current lands by default, but why else would Russia agree. long and short, i dont see any practical end in foreseeable unless one side capitulates their position.

Agree there seems little prospect of either side agreeing to the other’s demands.

My feeling is that Starmer & Macron’s initiative is designed to sideline Trump’s construction deal entirely (because that’s what it deserves) by formalising what Europe and Ukraine want a peace agreement to look like.

 

[Rdodge30]

Can I check, you are being sarcastic, right?

Absolutely not.

First step to peace always ceasefire

In last 2 days Labour Government position has been :

Rachel Reeves gives £2.6 billion to Zelenskyy who says he will use it to manufacture weapons

Kier Starmer commits £1.6 billion to Zelenskyy to provide missiles

 

[Triggaaar]

Speculating:

There’s definitely shades of playing all sides in this. Europe needs to buy time but it also won’t want Trump to lose interest.

Another angle is Putin - the reported plan for a 1 month “partial ceasefire” can only be to force Putin to show his intentions.

If he honours it to prove Trump right then he can agree to the next ceasefire as well. If he refuses, Trump is proven wrong.

We know Putin's intentions. He'd train troops in preparation to go again, and simply say Zelenskyy broke the ceasefire.

 

[Triggaaar]

Absolutely not.

First step to peace always ceasefire

No it isn't. We have peace with Germany and Japan, and that wasn't via a ceasefire.

Ukraine can't stop firing back while Russia attacks.

And if sanctions are lifted, Russia will build a more capable army ready to go again.

Putin wants all of Ukraine and to act as if a ceasefire will work is more disingenuous than naive.

In last 2 days Labour Government position has been :

Rachel Reeves gives £2.6 billion to Zelenskyy who says he will use it to manufacture weapons

Kier Starmer commits £1.6 billion to Zelenskyy to provide missiles

Good. That's what we need to help defeat Putin.

 

[Rdodge30]

No it isn't. We have peace with Germany and Japan, and that wasn't via a ceasefire.

Ukraine can't stop firing back while Russia attacks.

And if sanctions are lifted, Russia will build a more capable army ready to go again.

Putin wants all of Ukraine and to act as if a ceasefire will work is more disingenuous than naive.



Good. That's what we need to help defeat Putin.

Well we are never going to agree if you are opposed to a ceasefire and in favour of more weapons

 

[raymondo]

Looks like we’ve upset him

From the BBC

US President Donald Trump - not in attendance at this weekend's European summit - has taken to his Truth Social platform to warn that less time should be spent "worrying about Putin".

More time, he writes in the early hours on his social media platform, should be spent "worrying about migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our Country".

He adds that this would ensure "that we don’t end up like Europe".


Alternative reality pocket

He's sounding like Russian propaganda channel

 

[Bold Seagull]

Peter Mandelson in the Guardian:

Mandelson said there was a need for a “very radical reset” after Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, berated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday.

“The reset has to consist of the United States and Ukraine getting back on the same page, President Zelenskyy giving his unequivocal backing to the initiative that President Trump is taking to end the war and to bring a just and lasting peace to Ukraine,” Mandelson said.

“And the Europeans too, they need to back the calls for a ceasefire, and – by the way – I think that Ukraine should be the first to commit to a ceasefire and defy the Russians to follow.”


A Labour spokesperson said this is NOT the Government’s position….. whyever not?

Diplomacy in action following Friday's disaster. While Starmer hosts Zelenskyy and a summit no doubt irking the clown prince of being irked, the UK ambassador shows a supporting hand back to the US. A very British way of doing things.

You can't expect Russian to obey a cease fire without a show of strength. Only peace to be done here is that Russia can't get any further and could lose more than it could gain. That is why arming and supporting Ukraine now is so important - it needs strength to bring Putin to the table, otherwise he will make unreasonable demands and spin (as Russia and the US are doing) that is all Zelenskyy's fault.

 

[raymondo]

I’m now convinced that we’ve run out of suitable adjectives to describe Trump and his presidency..we’re gonna need a bigger lexicon.
And all this after only two months.

I actually have plenty more adjectives...but I hold back because I want this thread to remain readable!!

 

[Mellotron]

Absolutely not.

First step to peace always ceasefire

In last 2 days Labour Government position has been :

Rachel Reeves gives £2.6 billion to Zelenskyy who says he will use it to manufacture weapons

Kier Starmer commits £1.6 billion to Zelenskyy to provide missiles

How are we still stuck here 3 years later?!

Russia isn't going to stop. It will only stop if forced to stop. There is no true and meaningful ceasefire, we KNOW this.

Don't like it, but it very much appears that peace through strength is the only way here.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well we are never going to agree if you are opposed to a ceasefire and in favour of more weapons

You're not going to agree with many people here, or our government then

 

[Bold Seagull]

You're not going to agree with many people here, or our government then

Not even if we ask Putin really really nicely?

 

[Mellotron]

Not even if we ask Putin really really nicely?

It is SPECTACULAR to me that some people still think there is any level of trust to be had in Russia/Putin.

 

[SouthSaxon]

We know Putin's intentions. He'd train troops in preparation to go again, and simply say Zelenskyy broke the ceasefire.

Yeah. You’re right. I was…less right

I guess I’m trying to work out how much of this peace plan talk is performative while Europe gets a coordinated spending and rearmament plan underway. If we agree as we seem to that Putin will need to be forced to the table, the latter is much more important at the moment. I wish that wasn’t the case, but the signs are pointing that way.

They know Putin can’t be trusted but they can and should try to box him in diplomatically as much as they can.

They know Trump isn’t reliable but they can and should try to discourage any thoughts of leaving NATO or lifting sanctions or seeking deals with various devils.

They know Zelenskyy will stick with Europe if they increase aid and keep the prospect of security guarantees open.

There’s a hell of lot to triangulate and I don’t envy them.

 

[sparkie]

I've long thought that President Krasnov could hand wave away any salacious Kompromat by saying it's AI fake news.

But what if the Kompromat is hard evidence that Krasnov rigged the election ?

That would put Krasnov in jail forever.

Best do what Boss Putin says.