[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[essbee1]

Have a read of this : https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...ssias-first-external-debt-default-2022-03-02/

Thanks dazzer. Very interesting.

 

[essbee1]

All governments borrow to cover day to day fluctuations in cash flow. The quick answer is, this will go from hard, to near impossible to access this money in the foreseeable future.

If they default, it's similar to individual bankruptcy in that future lending would be near impossible to secure.

In cases where there is a sovereign default the IMF often steps in to provide emergency funding. Good luck negotiating that one Putin

The debt is likely to be made in large part to institutions, (pension funds etc) who are far less likely to invest any money in the country if the guarantee they will get it back is gone. Private investment is an essential if any country wants to develop itself.

Ta Nobby.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This is such a defeatist attitude - 'give the bully something to make him go away'. Yeah, and then he'll come back for more.

The idea he won't go without gaining something also suggests he's winning. Even if he destroys Ukraine, he's not won anything.


Ukraine doesn't have to make him go away. Keep sanctions in place that destroy Russia until he can't afford to stay, or dies etc. Then one day, Ukrainians can have their country back.

Give in to him, and then when he dies Ukraine will still be part of Russia for his eventual successor.

Yes. Time is of the essence for Putin. He can't afford to keep waging this war. Ukraine should say to him what they said to that warship. But it's easy for us to say that as it's not our blood being spilt

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

Has Russian re-opened their stock market yet?

 

[essbee1]

Yes. Time is of the essence for Putin. He can't afford to keep waging this war. Ukraine should say to him what they said to that warship. But it's easy for us to say that as it's not our blood being spilt

I find it incredibly upsetting watching the news. It gives me hope for the Ukrainian people however that as this **** wages war, he is completely
incapable of stopping the sheer force of economics utterly ravaging his economy. I feel sorry for the Russians who don't war either, but that is the price
they must endure for having a head-case in charge.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Thanks dazzer. Very interesting.

It is interesting. Especially this bit ....

March 16 is the first of several payments, with another $359 million due on a 2030 bond due on March 31 . The first principal payment is due on April 4 when a $2 billion bond matures read more .

Ouch

They've got to find that money in Rubles!

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

It is interesting. Especially this bit ....

March 16 is the first of several payments, with another $359 million due on a 2030 bond due on March 31 . The first principal payment is due on April 4 when a $2 billion bond matures read more .

Ouch

They've got to find that money in Rubles!

No wonder the Oligarchs are getting a bit nervous, Putin will be looking to them, and calling in favours.
Which in turn could be interesting with all the dirt they have on him.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

 

[Poojah]

It is interesting. Especially this bit ....

March 16 is the first of several payments, with another $359 million due on a 2030 bond due on March 31 . The first principal payment is due on April 4 when a $2 billion bond matures read more .

Ouch

They've got to find that money in Rubles!

Well they’d better hurry up as the longer they leave it, the more rubles they’re gonna need…

 

[peterward]

The Putin Youth... sounds familiar.

Gone full Fascist.

[tweet]1500231126606098434[/tweet]

 

[jakarta]

It is interesting. Especially this bit ....

March 16 is the first of several payments, with another $359 million due on a 2030 bond due on March 31 . The first principal payment is due on April 4 when a $2 billion bond matures read more .

Ouch

They've got to find that money in Rubles!

Given that he can print Roubles domestically that isn't an issue but at 140 per dollar (and falling) a slight headache for Vlad when he has to do business with the rest of the World?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Putin’s forces in Ukraine war are decimated, says UK defence chief

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...are-decimated-says-uk-defence-chief-x7khnbfzq

 

[essbee1]

It is interesting. Especially this bit ....

March 16 is the first of several payments, with another $359 million due on a 2030 bond due on March 31 . The first principal payment is due on April 4 when a $2 billion bond matures read more .

Ouch

They've got to find that money in Rubles!

Love it. They'd better start raiding their piggy banks hadn't they? Oh, oh, hold on, they already have

 

[peterward]

As someone with close ties to Ukraine fully respect your views. But what are the alternatives. Surely Putin will not go away with nothing gained. If he stays with his military strength he will bomb Ukraine to bits. Are you saying that Ukraine will be able to put up such resistance that he will go away.

Yes, I think that they can actually defeat him, it wont be easy, but its possble, the longer this lasts with western money and arms, the more the pendulem swings. The Bellingcat analysis said Russia had about 10-14 days of missiles, munitions, and some of them take months to manufacure, theyve had devasatating losses in men and equipment. 2 Military experts said their efforts in South have petered out, today they flew 30 helicopters into an airfield near Kherson and Ukraine smashed them all. They missiled a russian ship last night too, thats burning in the black sea. You do not let this type of fanatical, terrorist enemy off the hook as they weaken imho, They had most of the advantage, as the pendulem swings you dont deal.

Did Putin tell one truth in this, honour a single word or previous agreement about security? Right now he has bungled into a position where he is taking unsustainable losses on the battlefield and economy is being hammered at home. if you let him off, he doesnt give up on his aspiration, he learns the lessons, re equips and comes back again from a position of strength.

Reparations, stability will only come from a Putin defeat, any deal can only be with Ukraine territorial integrity being respected in full. Russia has no place in the decision making.

zelensky told them to do one btw. The Right decision

 

[KZNSeagull]

Putin’s forces in Ukraine war are decimated, says UK defence chief

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...are-decimated-says-uk-defence-chief-x7khnbfzq

That looks like a precis of his interview with Sophie Raworth on Sunday Morning.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Yes, I think that they can actually defeat him, it wont be easy, but its possble, the longer this lasts with western money and arms, the more the pendulem swings. The Bellingcat analysis said Russia had about 10-14 days of missiles, munitions, and some of them take months to manufacure, theyve had devasatating losses in men and equipment. 2 Military experts said their efforts in South have petered out, today they flew 30 helicopters into an airfield near Kherson and Ukraine smashed them all. They missiled a russian ship last night too, thats burning in the black sea. You do not let this type of fanatical, terrorist enemy off the hook as they weaken imho, They had most of the advantage, as the pendulem swings you dont deal.

Did Putin tell one truth in this, honour a single word or previous agreement about security? Right now he has bungled into a position where he is taking unsustainable losses on the battlefield and economy is being hammered at home. if you let him off, he doesnt give up on his aspiration, he learns the lessons, re equips and comes back again from a position of strength.

Reparations, stability will only come from a Putin defeat, any deal can only be with Ukraine territorial integrity being respected in full. Russia has no place in the decision making.

zelensky told them to do one btw. The Right decision

Momentum can swing and I think the South in particular looks tricky for Ukraine, strategically and economically. Today's "offer" gives Putin the "excuse" to up the terror. Sadly this sounds like more civilian casualties and atrocities.

I suspect this war is just starting and there are months, even years of this ahead.


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[Rowdey]

Given that he can print Roubles domestically that isn't an issue but at 140 per dollar (and falling) a slight headache for Vlad when he has to do business with the rest of the World?

Assuming the actual bill bond has to be paid in dollars, he has to find someone willing to take that exchange (Ruble to Dollar) tho..right ? Good luck with that VP..!

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Love it. They'd better start raiding their piggy banks hadn't they? Oh, oh, hold on, they already have

I've just been thinking about this.

A plausible scenario is that China agrees to pay off the debts as they come in return for as yet unspecified favours. They have form of doing similar in Africa.

This week has confirmed to me that Russia is in it's death throes as a serious international player. I think they'll end this war as little more than a vassal state to China, who would love a country with a seat at the security council, a deadly arsenal and an endless capacity for doing dirty work under their thumb.

The West v China is shaping up to be the real battle of the century ... and Russia are a pawn in this match

 

[Seasider78]

No discussions or proposals have emerged to end this. I think you've misread them, or missed the small print.

The Kremlin has laid down what is wants that’s clearly not going to be acceptable to the Ukrainians but negotiations start from a position of where each party wants to get to.

 

[rogersix]

Momentum can swing and I think the South in particular looks tricky for Ukraine, strategically and economically. Today's "offer" gives Putin the "excuse" to up the terror. Sadly this sounds like more civilian casualties and atrocities.

I suspect this war is just starting and there are months, even years of this ahead.


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we have no idea what is in putin's strategic reserve tho', the longer ukraine can hold on, the more likely the outcome will be in their favour

 

[vegster]

No wonder the Oligarchs are getting a bit nervous, Putin will be looking to them, and calling in favours.
Which in turn could be interesting with all the dirt they have on him.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin.

Could Putin just refuse to pay it though ? What could the lenders do ? This is a man who is happy to ignore the UN, the International courts of justice etc etc