Kosh
'The' Yaztromo
I've been thinking about the recent successes our talent machine model has wrought, with the substantial profit made on player assets over the past two-three years. Whilst this model clearly impinges on our ability to, (you know...) win stuff it has served to make our club the envy of the footballing business world.
However, if out model relies on a % of young starlets being sold to cover any operating loss and result in profitability, I foresee some slightly less plain sailing ahead.
The head coach role and our loan out development model relies on either route improving the player at its heart and increasing the asset value substantially more often than not doubling outlay in terms of profit... superb when the system functions as it should.
Right now, I suspect our loan out pipeline the 5-10 million profit tick over appears to be functioning as it should but the first team picture looks less rosy. Too many of the players are stalling and in some cases going backwards, alarmingly so.
The following first team squad players (those with potential re-sale value or realistic departures), have clearly gone backwards from the Roberto dip with that trajectory continuing or getting worse under Fabian:
Enciso,
Ferguson,
Pervis,
Adingra.
Those who've not got any better or worse:
Mitoma - still high value.
Igor - probs maintained breakeven status.
Those with the potential for a high return:
Hinsh,
Pedro,
Ayari,
Baleba,
Mitoma --- still features here I suspect.
Van Hecke.
Bart.
Whilst this doesn't look too serious, beyond the above it's difficult to see where the next big % profit will come from... especially when you consider the outlay for the likes of Minteh et al who based on current performances we'd be lucky to see a return on... I'd categorise all the summer signings in this bracket.
For the model to remain as productive we need a head coach who can arrest the slide of the big % winners, with Enciso, Ferguson and to a lesser extent Adingra central to this... Right now, for me all the squad is stalling (not looking as cohesive, strong, flamboyant and/or standing out at all), which is a worry. We need the coach to 'play the game' whilst playing attractive eyebrow raising football that catches the imagination and wallets of the world's big 6s. Again, I'm not as confident the Albion brand is as attractive as it was under peak era Potter and/or Roberto, and as such our % profits will likely dip, ever more so against the backdrop of FFP etc.
I hope I'm wrong, but based on the money we paid out this year, I'd expect us to be putting our eggs in the (basket) sale of Pedro and Mitoma to see us through and ensure we continue to be noted as the club with the plan backed with stunning execution in terms of replacement recruitment. Beyond that, I'm a little worried we might be starting to amass a number of high value low re-sale squad players with the inevitable downward trend on the pitch likely to follow. If we lose our reputation as a stepping stone we become less attractive to 'future' stars and to remain competitive will need to spend 30 million on average recruits from Holland and the like to stay in the mix... for us that's not really a viable long-term strategy, as it's simply not sustainable.
I do wonder, if beyond the results on the pitch, whether the powers that be are a little concerned that two former absolute stars in the making in Julio and Evan are now out on a limb or utterly out of sorts... strong management required... I'm not sure we've got that man, and tips of icebergs are seldom worth ignoring imho.
Hopefully my concerns are misplaced, but I did wonder if any others shared the niggling feeling that we're on a bit of a knife edge in terms of the model continuing in the manner it has?
However, if out model relies on a % of young starlets being sold to cover any operating loss and result in profitability, I foresee some slightly less plain sailing ahead.
The head coach role and our loan out development model relies on either route improving the player at its heart and increasing the asset value substantially more often than not doubling outlay in terms of profit... superb when the system functions as it should.
Right now, I suspect our loan out pipeline the 5-10 million profit tick over appears to be functioning as it should but the first team picture looks less rosy. Too many of the players are stalling and in some cases going backwards, alarmingly so.
The following first team squad players (those with potential re-sale value or realistic departures), have clearly gone backwards from the Roberto dip with that trajectory continuing or getting worse under Fabian:
Enciso,
Ferguson,
Pervis,
Adingra.
Those who've not got any better or worse:
Mitoma - still high value.
Igor - probs maintained breakeven status.
Those with the potential for a high return:
Hinsh,
Pedro,
Ayari,
Baleba,
Mitoma --- still features here I suspect.
Van Hecke.
Bart.
Whilst this doesn't look too serious, beyond the above it's difficult to see where the next big % profit will come from... especially when you consider the outlay for the likes of Minteh et al who based on current performances we'd be lucky to see a return on... I'd categorise all the summer signings in this bracket.
For the model to remain as productive we need a head coach who can arrest the slide of the big % winners, with Enciso, Ferguson and to a lesser extent Adingra central to this... Right now, for me all the squad is stalling (not looking as cohesive, strong, flamboyant and/or standing out at all), which is a worry. We need the coach to 'play the game' whilst playing attractive eyebrow raising football that catches the imagination and wallets of the world's big 6s. Again, I'm not as confident the Albion brand is as attractive as it was under peak era Potter and/or Roberto, and as such our % profits will likely dip, ever more so against the backdrop of FFP etc.
I hope I'm wrong, but based on the money we paid out this year, I'd expect us to be putting our eggs in the (basket) sale of Pedro and Mitoma to see us through and ensure we continue to be noted as the club with the plan backed with stunning execution in terms of replacement recruitment. Beyond that, I'm a little worried we might be starting to amass a number of high value low re-sale squad players with the inevitable downward trend on the pitch likely to follow. If we lose our reputation as a stepping stone we become less attractive to 'future' stars and to remain competitive will need to spend 30 million on average recruits from Holland and the like to stay in the mix... for us that's not really a viable long-term strategy, as it's simply not sustainable.
I do wonder, if beyond the results on the pitch, whether the powers that be are a little concerned that two former absolute stars in the making in Julio and Evan are now out on a limb or utterly out of sorts... strong management required... I'm not sure we've got that man, and tips of icebergs are seldom worth ignoring imho.
Hopefully my concerns are misplaced, but I did wonder if any others shared the niggling feeling that we're on a bit of a knife edge in terms of the model continuing in the manner it has?
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... Now in the list... I'd argue he's not going to be as high a % as certain others but has a high ceiling.
