[Albion] The Albion model... slight concern

[BadFish]

You've missed the point of the OP's post altogether. Nobody's saying we're not doing great at the moment (including the OP) - we are doing well, better than Brighton and Hove Albion have ever done. We did, however, make a big policy change in the summer, shelling out the sort of money we've never got anywhere near before, and we don't yet know how successful it's going to be.
One thing's for certain with the players we've bought in - we're not going to be selling them on in a year or two for ten times what we paid for them - or even three or four times - like we did with the likes of Caicedo, Mac, Cucu, White, etc.

I am going to confidently predict that Minteh, Gruda, kadioglu and Rutter will be sold for significant profit. Although hopefully not, and they stay with us to compete.

Slightly less confident I would predict the same for. Gomez, Osman, yalcouye, Dubbery.

The jury somewhat out on o'riley and wieffer but let's face it they will do okay.

I also don't think we should give up on Ferguson just yet, maybe we need some patience and faith in the boy.

Enciso seems to be on his way but surely we will still make a profit on him.

We are going okay.

 

[Han Solo]

I've thought about it for a moment and reached the conclusion that everything is going to be ok.

 

[BadFish]

I've thought about it for a moment and reached the conclusion that everything is going to be ok.

This depends on your expectations. Cracking the top four is going to be somewhere between bloody hard and nigh on impossible. If this is one's expectation you may be disappointed.

Top ten finishes and the occasional foray into the Europa league however are far more doable (although we may have to endure some disappointment on the way).

I agree with the general thrust of your post though, things are okay and will continue to be so.

 

[Kosh]

I've thought about it for a moment and reached the conclusion that everything is going to be ok.

That’s the beauty of copious amounts of weed

 

[BadFish]

That’s the beauty of copious amounts of weed

Either that or you are worried the cat is undercover police.

 

[Kosh]

I’ve had a few beers and decided I might have got all overwrought… I guess I just worry everything we we’ve striven so hard for and dreamt of us going to fall away, akin to that bit in Labyrinth… the “you have no power over me…” moment, the grand illusion comes crashing down and everyone realises this is just a cheap vehicle for some great David Bowie vids.

 

[Seaview Seagull]

I'd trust RDZ with the football model anyday over those coaches that Trust The Process

But RDZ didn't believe in the model he wanted a totally different one which the club couldn't support.

 

[Justice]

I’ve had a few beers and decided I might have got all overwrought… I guess I just worry everything we we’ve striven so hard for and dreamt of us going to fall away, akin to that bit in Labyrinth… the “you have no power over me…” moment, the grand illusion comes crashing down and everyone realises this is just a cheap vehicle for some great David Bowie vids.

It’s called being a fan mate, I get pissed off and probably overreact if we lose, or have games like last Sunday. The way some can brush it off as a blip and call others idiots for showing emotion are they really football fans or fans of football?
Sometimes I wish I wasn’t a football fan and didn’t get so stressed out and then Saturday rolls around and we do it all over again

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Somebody on here recently likened our business model to a stud farm (without the horse sex obviously). There's a high degree of churn, buying and selling hand over fist, but seemingly no real focus on building and tweaking the first team into a stable cohesive unit. Maybe it's the modern game, but the Albion just seem to be a set of ever-revolving doors. It's undoubtedly a great business model if you're in the business of buying and selling. As a football model? Maybe not so much

Club that has recently become squad stable....ManU.

Doing shite

And of course 'no signings' Liverpool are (checks tables) running away with it.

Funny old game.

 

[Dave the OAP]

I've been thinking about the recent successes our talent machine model has wrought, with the substantial profit made on player assets over the past two-three years. Whilst this model clearly impinges on our ability to, (you know...) win stuff it has served to make our club the envy of the footballing business world.

However, if out model relies on a % of young starlets being sold to cover any operating loss and result in profitability, I foresee some slightly less plain sailing ahead.

The head coach role and our loan out development model relies on either route improving the player at its heart and increasing the asset value substantially more often than not doubling outlay in terms of profit... superb when the system functions as it should.

Right now, I suspect our loan out pipeline the 5-10 million profit tick over appears to be functioning as it should but the first team picture looks less rosy. Too many of the players are stalling and in some cases going backwards, alarmingly so.

The following first team squad players (those with potential re-sale value or realistic departures), have clearly gone backwards from the Roberto dip with that trajectory continuing or getting worse under Fabian:

Enciso,
Ferguson,
Pervis,
Adingra.

Those who've not got any better or worse:

Mitoma - still high value.
Igor - probs maintained breakeven status.

Those with the potential for a high return:

Hinsh,
Pedro,
Ayari,
Baleba,
Mitoma --- still features here I suspect.
Van Hecke.
Bart.

Whilst this doesn't look too serious, beyond the above it's difficult to see where the next big % profit will come from... especially when you consider the outlay for the likes of Minteh et al who based on current performances we'd be lucky to see a return on... I'd categorise all the summer signings in this bracket.

For the model to remain as productive we need a head coach who can arrest the slide of the big % winners, with Enciso, Ferguson and to a lesser extent Adingra central to this... Right now, for me all the squad is stalling (not looking as cohesive, strong, flamboyant and/or standing out at all), which is a worry. We need the coach to 'play the game' whilst playing attractive eyebrow raising football that catches the imagination and wallets of the world's big 6s. Again, I'm not as confident the Albion brand is as attractive as it was under peak era Potter and/or Roberto, and as such our % profits will likely dip, ever more so against the backdrop of FFP etc.

I hope I'm wrong, but based on the money we paid out this year, I'd expect us to be putting our eggs in the (basket) sale of Pedro and Mitoma to see us through and ensure we continue to be noted as the club with the plan backed with stunning execution in terms of replacement recruitment. Beyond that, I'm a little worried we might be starting to amass a number of high value low re-sale squad players with the inevitable downward trend on the pitch likely to follow. If we lose our reputation as a stepping stone we become less attractive to 'future' stars and to remain competitive will need to spend 30 million on average recruits from Holland and the like to stay in the mix... for us that's not really a viable long-term strategy, as it's simply not sustainable.

I do wonder, if beyond the results on the pitch, whether the powers that be are a little concerned that two former absolute stars in the making in Julio and Evan are now out on a limb or utterly out of sorts... strong management required... I'm not sure we've got that man, and tips of icebergs are seldom worth ignoring imho.

Hopefully my concerns are misplaced, but I did wonder if any others shared the niggling feeling that we're on a bit of a knife edge in terms of the model continuing in the manner it has?

Pervis?

Gone backwards?

Eh?

 

[Dave the OAP]

This depends on your expectations. Cracking the top four is going to be somewhere between bloody hard and nigh on impossible. If this is one's expectation you may be disappointed.

Top ten finishes and the occasional foray into the Europa league however are far more doable (although we may have to endure some disappointment on the way).

I agree with the general thrust of your post though, things are okay and will continue to be so.

Yep

As much as it was nice being top 4 we all secretly knew it was unsustainable once the big boys like Liverpool, arsenal, that hateful bunch of shits, and of course city got their acts together

It looks like there will be about 5 clubs fighting for the euroleague this year and our home record against the poorer sides may kill our chances, but you never know.

I thought 9th at the beginning of the season and haven’t really changed that.

 

[GT49er]

Am I right that your post can be distilled down to 'I'm concerned that not all our players are developing into potential £50m+ sales, and therefore the model is at risk'?

No, nothing like that at all. The mode has significantly shifted though. Spending £200M in the summer was something of a Great Leap Forward; yes, it was, like it or not.

Because if so, that's always been true. None of the following left us for big money : Connolly, Ostigard, Gyokeres, Molumby, Alzate, Clarke, Baluta, Normann, Mlakar, Zeqiri, Tau, Kozlowski, Karbownik, Leonard and loads of others I can't remember.

Yes, it has. Last season pretty much half of our loanees left the club at the end of their loans for little or nothing; and the same the season before - and looking that way this season too.

It doesn't matter though because you only need the odd Caucedo, Cucurella and White, with a few Burn/Maupay/Gilmour type sales sprinkled in, to stay ahead of the curve

Missing the point there. Yes, if we can sell players we've picked up with a mark up of 300%, 400% - or about 1000% in the case of Caicedo, that's brilliant - and it was. Not the same with this years trenche - £20, £30 or evven £40M ain't going to be sold for that sort of mark up. Yes, we're hoping they'll improve our team - it's not just about selling them for X times what we paid for them. Yes, they may/probably will move on to 'bigger' clubs (and bigger wages) if they do well for us - but at £30 or £40M a time, it's a bigger risk. £7M for Sima, who it seems isn't quite good we can probably shrug off (and possibly make a small profit) - £30 or £40M? Not so easy.

Will it work, or won't it? I don't know - but TB's record is good enough to accept that 'trust the process' isn't a bad starting point. But we can discuss it - without sarcy or derogatory responses, I would hope (lot of hope involved there!)