[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread

[chickens]

Look at any 5 year period in the history of Bitcoin. Seems pretty safe to me.

There has just been a huge market event that sent traders scurrying for safe havens. Gold and short-dated government bonds have both been big winners, the equity markets significant losers.

Bitcoin has just sat there, nobody rushing into it, nobody exiting their position. What does that tell you?

 

[DJ NOBO]

Crypto bottom yet?

 

[RandyWanger]

Crypto bottom yet?

Holding up better than the S&P 500

 

[tstanbur]

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

View attachment 199752

Grifters gonna grift

 

[tstanbur]

Grifters gonna grift

Nauses gonna nause

 

[RandyWanger]

I think we're okay

 

[RandyWanger]

I'm not quite sick of winning yet...

 

[chickens]

View attachment 199752

View attachment 199754

I think we're okay

I'm not quite sick of winning yet...

View attachment 199794

Note that cryptocurrency prices rely on maintaining perpetual inflows of fresh “mug” money in order to keep their boats afloat.

Posts similar to the above can be seen in forums of all kinds across the globe, and are effectively unregulated advertising.

My advice for crypto remains:

1. speculate only with money you can afford to lose. It is a speculation, not an investment. Put your gambling allowance into it, not your life savings.

2. Making any real money with crypto depends largely on market timing, and knowing how to make money on short-term market movements. If you have any sort of life, and don’t want to spend hours a day in crypto related group chats, or listening to “crypto bros” on podcasts or YouTube, it may not be for you.

3. Crypto has been a (long lasting) fad, but fads pass. As a friend recently said, “who’s talking about crypto in 2025?” - and he’s right there aren’t many left, a lot of people have moved on.

4. Transaction volumes (for BTC at least) have also fallen off from historical highs. Even during recent market turmoil, transaction volumes have remained at levels well below a year ago. There was no sign of the frenzied activity visible in the real financial system, disproving the “safe haven” theory of value. Also suggesting that while those holding are willing to keep holding, there isn’t sufficient volume of crypto-curious punters to push prices any higher. Everyone’s holding on, hoping somebody finds a use for it, and that the number will go up further down the line.

I know I’m boring the true believers, but I’d hate anyone to believe that they’re going to buy some Bitcoin and come back to 3000% returns in eighteen months time. It simply isn’t going to happen, and while money can absolutely be made, unless you’re a very switched on individual it is likely to be made at your expense.

 

[Weststander]

Note that cryptocurrency prices rely on maintaining perpetual inflows of fresh “mug” money in order to keep their boats afloat.

Posts similar to the above can be seen in forums of all kinds across the globe, and are effectively unregulated advertising.

My advice for crypto remains:

1. speculate only with money you can afford to lose. It is a speculation, not an investment. Put your gambling allowance into it, not your life savings.

2. Making any real money with crypto depends largely on market timing, and knowing how to make money on short-term market movements. If you have any sort of life, and don’t want to spend hours a day in crypto related group chats, or listening to “crypto bros” on podcasts or YouTube, it may not be for you.

3. Crypto has been a (long lasting) fad, but fads pass. As a friend recently said, “who’s talking about crypto in 2025?” - and he’s right there aren’t many left, a lot of people have moved on.

4. Transaction volumes (for BTC at least) have also fallen off from historical highs. Even during recent market turmoil, transaction volumes have remained at levels well below a year ago. There was no sign of the frenzied activity visible in the real financial system, disproving the “safe haven” theory of value. Also suggesting that while those holding are willing to keep holding, there isn’t sufficient volume of crypto-curious punters to push prices any higher. Everyone’s holding on, hoping somebody finds a use for it, and that the number will go up further down the line.

I know I’m boring the true believers, but I’d hate anyone to believe that they’re going to buy some Bitcoin and come back to 3000% returns in eighteen months time. It simply isn’t going to happen, and while money can absolutely be made, unless you’re a very switched on individual it is likely to be made at your expense.

I’ve not dabbled in it myself. But it seems to me …. pick a trusted platform and a less flighty cryptocurrency, buying when then there’s an apparent trough. Double your money then sell. Choice of cryptocurrency …. it’s a Wild West, so hard to way. Don’t fall into the propaganda from evangelists that it’s the new USD or gold, forever. Staking what wouldn’t hurt you to lose entirely.

 

[tstanbur]

Note that cryptocurrency prices rely on maintaining perpetual inflows of fresh “mug” money in order to keep their boats afloat.

Posts similar to the above can be seen in forums of all kinds across the globe, and are effectively unregulated advertising.

My advice for crypto remains:

1. speculate only with money you can afford to lose. It is a speculation, not an investment. Put your gambling allowance into it, not your life savings.

2. Making any real money with crypto depends largely on market timing, and knowing how to make money on short-term market movements. If you have any sort of life, and don’t want to spend hours a day in crypto related group chats, or listening to “crypto bros” on podcasts or YouTube, it may not be for you.

3. Crypto has been a (long lasting) fad, but fads pass. As a friend recently said, “who’s talking about crypto in 2025?” - and he’s right there aren’t many left, a lot of people have moved on.

4. Transaction volumes (for BTC at least) have also fallen off from historical highs. Even during recent market turmoil, transaction volumes have remained at levels well below a year ago. There was no sign of the frenzied activity visible in the real financial system, disproving the “safe haven” theory of value. Also suggesting that while those holding are willing to keep holding, there isn’t sufficient volume of crypto-curious punters to push prices any higher. Everyone’s holding on, hoping somebody finds a use for it, and that the number will go up further down the line.

I know I’m boring the true believers, but I’d hate anyone to believe that they’re going to buy some Bitcoin and come back to 3000% returns in eighteen months time. It simply isn’t going to happen, and while money can absolutely be made, unless you’re a very switched on individual it is likely to be made at your expense.

You are so fixated on crypto/bitcoin being a get rich quick scheme. I don’t think anyone in this thread believes that.

Or maybe you did, are now (currently) at a loss and that’s why you’re now being so negative about it all?

How are you in a position to advise people? You’ve only dabbled in it for a few months and clearly know little.

 

[chickens]

You are so fixated on crypto/bitcoin being a get rich quick scheme. I don’t think anyone in this thread believes that.

Or maybe you did, are now (currently) at a loss and that’s why you’re now being so negative about it all?

How are you in a position to advise people? You’ve only dabbled in it for a few months and clearly know little.

On the contrary, I think everyone on this thread knows full well that crypto is by design a Ponzi scheme, hence your trying very hard to encourage others in. If the new money doesn’t come in, how are you going to exit your position at a profit?

Now that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to make money at crypto, but you’ve got to:

a) be really good at market timing

b) have a very close eye on metrics like transaction volume, and know when to time your exit. If the transaction volume is dropping rather than growing, it suggests a lot of people have either already exited their positions, or are simply holding on regardless, hoping the number goes up in the future.

Below is the 1 year chart for Bitcoin transaction volume. People wandering off perhaps? Finding more interesting things to do with their lives?

 

[beorhthelm]

On the contrary, I think everyone on this thread knows full well that crypto is by design a Ponzi scheme, hence your trying very hard to encourage others in. If the new money doesn’t come in, how are you going to exit your position at a profit?

have take issue with "ponzi" because this is often use by people to attack shares, pensions or even the general national economy. it's silly and lacks understanding of what defines Ponzi schemes, and what trading is. usually crypto has no promise of return, in case of Bitcoin no entity to give you anything, lacks the basic criteria for a Ponzi. they are simply speculative assets, and there's a market that determines some value. some offer something more, some dont.

your transaction graph convieniently cuts at 1 year, so missing the lower transactions from 2023 and earlier, rather refuting your claim. for many the whole point of BTC is to hold BTC for longer term.

 

[chickens]

have take issue with "ponzi" because this is often use by people to attack shares, pensions or even the general national economy. it's silly and lacks understanding of what defines Ponzi schemes, and what trading is. there is no promise of return, in case of Bitcoin no entity to give you anything, lacks the basic criteria for a Ponzi. they are simply speculative assets, and there's a market that determines some value. some offer something more, some dont.

your transaction graph convieniently cuts at 1 year, so missing the lower transactions from 2023 and earlier, rather refuting your claim. for many the whole point of BTC is to hold BTC for longer term.

I’m sorry, but we’ve just gone through/are still going through a period of significant market volatility, during which all genuine financial instruments underwent some form of significant price movement. BTC, toy token that it is, just sat there, with nobody giving it any consideration whatsoever. It’s divorced from any kind of financial reality.

In a growing market, you would expect transaction volume to continue to increase, the fact that transaction volumes have declined, indicate that interest in BTC as a market instrument has declined, and is clearly of interest to a decreasing number of potential investors. I picked the 1 year chart precisely because it shows the last year. I’m interested in what’s happening now.

Where I do take your point is regarding Ponzi schemes, it isn’t strictly a Ponzi scheme, as there isn’t a promise of returns, but BTC has no intrinsic value, it is the belief in a future return that causes individuals and institutions to invest in it. Very few would have been attracted by the promise of a financial instrument that halved an individual’s investment. We all saw the gains made by those who were in from the start, and it’s rather like arguing for buying lottery tickets, “you’ve got to be in it to win it.”

Hence a rich industry in grifters inventing thousand upon thousand of memecoins that inevitably rug pull once they’ve achieved lift-off.

I’m fine with those who want to play with their tokens, playing with their tokens. What I object to, is trying to sucker others in to protect their positions, and give them a profitable exit strategy. Each time Randy and tstanbur post their little “come to crypto” adverts on here, I will post my counterpoints, because I don’t like seeing people getting mugged.

 

[tstanbur]

I’m sorry, but we’ve just gone through/are still going through a period of significant market volatility, during which all genuine financial instruments underwent some form of significant price movement. BTC, toy token that it is, just sat there, with nobody giving it any consideration whatsoever. It’s divorced from any kind of financial reality.

In a growing market, you would expect transaction volume to continue to increase, the fact that transaction volumes have declined, indicate that interest in BTC as a market instrument has declined, and is clearly of interest to a decreasing number of potential investors. I picked the 1 year chart precisely because it shows the last year. I’m interested in what’s happening now.

Where I do take your point is regarding Ponzi schemes, it isn’t strictly a Ponzi scheme, as there isn’t a promise of returns, but BTC has no intrinsic value, it is the belief in a future return that causes individuals and institutions to invest in it. Very few would have been attracted by the promise of a financial instrument that halved an individual’s investment. We all saw the gains made by those who were in from the start, and it’s rather like arguing for buying lottery tickets, “you’ve got to be in it to win it.”

Hence a rich industry in grifters inventing thousand upon thousand of memecoins that inevitably rug pull once they’ve achieved lift-off.

I’m fine with those who want to play with their tokens, playing with their tokens. What I object to, is trying to sucker others in to protect their positions, and give them a profitable exit strategy. Each time Randy and tstanbur post their little “come to crypto” adverts on here, I will post my counterpoints, because I don’t like seeing people getting mugged.

Seriously, what are you talking about? "adverts"? I've simply been contributing to this thread with my opinions and/or sharing market updates.

As if what I post on NSC is going to move the market and make me millions

Most people first invest in crypto by hearing about ridiculous gains on the grapevine and think it's easy money, jumping in with little research into random coins. It often works to start with as they're buying during an uptrend but then the inevitable dips happen and they find themselves in a loss.

This certainly happened to me and I expect many others on this thread too.


You then have 2 choices :


1. Sell and be angry/negative about the whole experience for the rest of your life and preach to others despite very limited knowledge of the subject

2. Spend some time educating yourself properly (like you should with any investment) and realise there is actually money to be made if you are sensible and have a proper strategy.

Based on your posts on this thread, you are clearly number 1 and it's almost certain the other nause(s) on this thread are too.

 

[chickens]

Seriously, what are you talking about? "adverts"? I've simply been contributing to this thread with my opinions and/or sharing market updates.

As if what I post on NSC is going to move the market and make me millions

Most people first invest in crypto by hearing about ridiculous gains on the grapevine and think it's easy money, jumping in with little research into random coins. It often works to start with as they're buying during an uptrend but then the inevitable dips happen and they find themselves in a loss.

This certainly happened to me and I expect many others on this thread too.


You then have 2 choices :


1. Sell and be angry/negative about the whole experience for the rest of your life and preach to others despite very limited knowledge of the subject

2. Spend some time educating yourself properly (like you should with any investment) and realise there is actually money to be made if you are sensible and have a proper strategy.

Based on your posts on this thread, you are clearly number 1 and it's almost certain the other nause(s) on this thread are too.

It’s ok. You love your tokens. We get it.

I’m just here to keep pointing out you have to treat it like a betting market, not making an investment. And I will keep making the same points periodically, to provide a counterpoint to your “come on in, the water’s lovely” viewpoints.

Just pop me on ignore if you’re finding me annoying.

 

[pb21]

On the contrary, I think everyone on this thread knows full well that crypto is by design a Ponzi scheme, hence your trying very hard to encourage others in. If the new money doesn’t come in, how are you going to exit your position at a profit?

Now that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to make money at crypto, but you’ve got to:

a) be really good at market timing

b) have a very close eye on metrics like transaction volume, and know when to time your exit. If the transaction volume is dropping rather than growing, it suggests a lot of people have either already exited their positions, or are simply holding on regardless, hoping the number goes up in the future.

Below is the 1 year chart for Bitcoin transaction volume. People wandering off perhaps? Finding more interesting things to do with their lives?

View attachment 199852

To get a full picture I think you need to take a look at transaction value too, rather than transaction #, also transaction count was higher at some point due to ordinals, or something like that, so 'artificially high'.

 

[tstanbur]

It’s ok. You love your tokens. We get it.

I’m just here to keep pointing out you have to treat it like a betting market, not making an investment. And I will keep making the same points periodically, to provide a counterpoint to your “come on in, the water’s lovely” viewpoints.

Just pop me on ignore if you’re finding me annoying.

"We" - who are you representing? you and Tom Hark? What a team!

I don't love my "tokens", the vast majority are a load of shit which will lose a lot of money. I have done but I'm still here as can see the bigger picture and have learned my lesson over time in the market.

Bitcoin is very different to the rest of crypto and judging it on a year is not long enough (it is up over the last year anyway).

Do you judge all other investments on a year's performance?

 

[tstanbur]

To get a full picture I think you need to take a look at transaction value too, rather than transaction #, also transaction count was higher at some point due to ordinals, or something like that, so 'artificially high'.

View attachment 199864

Careful, you'll get accused of marketing!!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Seriously, what are you talking about? "adverts"? I've simply been contributing to this thread with my opinions and/or sharing market updates.

As if what I post on NSC is going to move the market and make me millions

Most people first invest in crypto by hearing about ridiculous gains on the grapevine and think it's easy money, jumping in with little research into random coins. It often works to start with as they're buying during an uptrend but then the inevitable dips happen and they find themselves in a loss.

This certainly happened to me and I expect many others on this thread too.


You then have 2 choices :


1. Sell and be angry/negative about the whole experience for the rest of your life and preach to others despite very limited knowledge of the subject

2. Spend some time educating yourself properly (like you should with any investment) and realise there is actually money to be made if you are sensible and have a proper strategy.

Based on your posts on this thread, you are clearly number 1 and it's almost certain the other nause(s) on this thread are too.

This @chickens. Me and thee clearly aren't watching enough youtube videos with the required degree of confirmation bias