[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Interesting to note the change in polling in late September - a tory collapse and a labour 'soar'.

I can't recall what happened to trigger this. Sunk had been 'in charge' for a year. Any thoughts?

Edit @Bob! points out that was 2022, and was the 'Truss Experiment'. And she is still an MP and is earning money talking bollocks at 'meetings' in America. Sake!

 

[Bob!]

Interesting to note the change in late September to cause the tory polling to collapse and labour's to soar?

I can't recall what happened to trigger this. Sunk had been 'in charge' for a year. Any thoughts?

View attachment 184612

2022.
That's Truss

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

2022.
That's Truss

So it is - silly me!

Post edited.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Interesting to note the change in late September to cause the tory polling to collapse and labour's to soar?

I can't recall what happened to trigger this. Sunk had been 'in charge' for a year. Any thoughts?

View attachment 184612

It's 2022 and the Truss/Kwarteng major balls up budget

 

[KZNSeagull]

The UK's main political parties have “ducked” addressing stark choices over public finances in their manifestos and it will be a "considerable surprise" if taxes are not increased over the next five years, a leading think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) accused Labour and the Conservatives of engaging in a "conspiracy of silence" and ignoring "painful choices".

Tax rises hard to avoid over next five years, says IFS

The economic research group as the main parties have “ducked” addressing public finance challenges.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The UK's main political parties have “ducked” addressing stark choices over public finances in their manifestos and it will be a "considerable surprise" if taxes are not increased over the next five years, a leading think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) accused Labour and the Conservatives of engaging in a "conspiracy of silence" and ignoring "painful choices".

Tax rises hard to avoid over next five years, says IFS

The economic research group as the main parties have “ducked” addressing public finance challenges.

www.bbc.co.uk

Indeed. I'm OK with that. It is what it is (hopefully many years of grown up government in place of the wheezes, spaffing and incompetence of the last 14).

 

[Flounce]

Indeed. I'm OK with that. It is what it is (hopefully many years of grown up government in place of the wheezes, spaffing and incompetence of the last 14).

Have you thought about changing your user name to Harold Wilson’s Tackle?

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Like many others I went to bed that night thinking Remain would win, for all his faults, the loss of Cameron as PM is a pivotal part of the recent history of the UK.

We will obviously never know but I wonder if there would be a different scenario if this election was Dave vs Sir Keir?

Cameron and Osbourne's austerity agenda directly led us to Brexit and everything that has happened since (not to forget he called the referendum to settle an internal Conservative Party squabble). If the Government do not do enough to improve the lives of the population then it will lead to more people supporting extreme politics (like Reform) as we will see in 5 years time if Starmer fails to do anything meaningful with his time in office.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Indeed. I'm OK with that. It is what it is (hopefully many years of grown up government in place of the wheezes, spaffing and incompetence of the last 14).

Isn't ducking "addressing stark choices over public financing in their manifestoes" a wheeze then? A "conspiracy of silence" doesn't sound like grown up government to me.

 

[nwgull]

Like many others I went to bed that night thinking Remain would win, for all his faults, the loss of Cameron as PM is a pivotal part of the recent history of the UK.

We will obviously never know but I wonder if there would be a different scenario if this election was Dave vs Sir Keir?

Absolutely there would. Cameron made a massive error of judgement on calling the Brexit referundum when he did and not really campaigning effectively, but other than that he was a far better PM than any of his 4 successors in the next 8 years. Whilst I may not have agreed with everything he did, I at least felt that he governerned by doing what he believed was in the best interests of the country. I'd struggle to say that about the current lot.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Have you thought about changing your user name to Harold Wilson’s Tackle?

Darlin' 'Arold? He worried me a bit. Pipe in public, cigar in private. I liked 'white heat of technology', but that was Anthony Wedgewood Benn, before his love affair with himself got out of hand.

No, I'll retain my homage to the intended recipient I think

 

[Surrey Phil]

I think the missing element from the polls is the likely low turnout. I have spoken to quite a few people who are completely disillusioned with Politics and simply won't be voting. I've got my postal vote but I am going to give it a miss this time!

 

[Hugo Rune]

Genuinely never heard of that phenomenon. It's always been a badge of honour, even amongst super rich tax avoiding celebs to say "I'm Labour".

It’s an Owen Jones thing. The narrative is that Labour is the same as the Tories because Starmer decapitated Corbyn. I suppose it’s just some of the social media channels I follow but the venom directed at Labour has been astonishing.

However, since the election has been called, I’ve seen a huge reduction in it. Owen Jones’ campaign to reduce the Labour majority seems to be being rejected. My impression is that rhe hard left voters who had declared they’d never vote Labour under Starmer have shifted to voting the Tories out, even if it means placing an X in the red box.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Isn't ducking "addressing stark choices over public financing in their manifestoes" a wheeze then? A "conspiracy of silence" doesn't sound like grown up government to me.

Well, they could tell the truth, which is they won't know quite how shit it all is till they get to see the books, but this is always the case for the Opposition, so only HMG itself is in a position to be able to put forward a fully informed set of election promises. They have made a few promises about tax. If they don't break those promises that would be nice. The Tories claim it is in the labour manifesto to increase taxes so presumably if they do so the Tories can hardly then accuse them of lying.

No, I can't get too agitated about issue 'ducking'. It would be far worse if Labour had a go at guesstimating everything down to precise numbers. Because it would all be guesswork the Tories could easily make a plausible argument the Labour plans are all bollocks.

It boils down to this. Who are you prepared to entrust with you vote? The current lot of who have f***ed everything up, who have a track record of incompetence (Brexit, Covid, the economy, the NHS and more) and plan to do more stupid things (like Rwanda) or the other lot, who seem dull and cautious, but surely deserve the chance to take us in a different direction. The absolute shower of f***ing disgraces, or some other guys who, when the ran the country in the nineties and early noughties were really decent? Frankly I can't believe I'm even asking the question.

 

[Tubby Mondays]

Absolutely there would. Cameron made a massive error of judgement on calling the Brexit referundum when he did and not really campaigning effectively, but other than that he was a far better PM than any of his 4 successors in the next 8 years. Whilst I may not have agreed with everything he did, I at least felt that he governerned by doing what he believed was in the best interests of the country. I'd struggle to say that about the current lot.

Youre lucky his and Osbornes austerity policies didnt effect you. They absolutely crucified many and were totally unnecessary.

 

[medwayseagull reborn]

I think the missing element from the polls is the likely low turnout. I have spoken to quite a few people who are completely disillusioned with Politics and simply won't be voting. I've got my postal vote but I am going to give it a miss this time!

I think the missing element from the polls is the likely low turnout. I have spoken to quite a few people who are completely disillusioned with Politics and simply won't be voting. I've got my postal vote but I am going to give it a miss this time!

The MRP polls have reflected the lower turnout by predicting what they think it will be in various consituencies. All the polls reflect the data they are using including likelihood to vote - I think all are anticipating a lower turnout.

 

[Comrade Sam]

Was out canvassing for Faiza Shaheen in South Woodford, amongst over 300 that spread around the constituency on Sunday. My team of 6 was only joined by Faiza and my only non BHA sporting hero - Ronnie O'Sullivan! Bloomin' marvelous!

 

[Audax]

The MRP polls have reflected the lower turnout by predicting what they think it will be in various consituencies. All the polls reflect the data they are using including likelihood to vote - I think all are anticipating a lower turnout.

Apparently the reason why the MRP polls have fluctuated so wildly in how many seats the Tories might hold on to is due to differences in how they handle the "don't knows" and "low turn out" situations. There's apparently big differences in the assumptions of how the "don't knows" who have said they intend to vote will split, in particular for those who voted Tory in 2019. In particular, how they handle the size of the swing in large-2019-Tory-majority seats.

A 20 point nationwide drop in the Tory vote implies there will be plenty of seats where the swing is bigger than that - not least because there are seats out there with a 2019 Tory vote less than 20% and therefore cannot drop 20 points. To get to a 20 point nationwide drop, you need a number of seats to dip by more than that. The question is ... how much more? And where?

personally think we'll see a Tory seat count somewhere between 100 and 150. Probably nearer 150 than 100. Less than 100 would be a massive shock, more than 150 will be because they can get some traction against Farage after the numbskull dropped his mask re: Russia.

 

[Flounce]

IFS calling out all parties for basically being deceitful, clueless, cavalier or liars over finances it seems

 

[Machiavelli]

If all Labour achieve is an end to strikes, a modest reduction in NHS waiting times and a stabilisation of inflation and corresponding reduction in interest rates it’ll honestly be fantastic for the country.

Daily life is a stress filled snowball of delay, worry and financial difficulties for so many these days, while the government hand out contracts to their mates and guzzle wine in Downing Street.

Five years of an adult in charge, doing their best. That’s what it comes down to people voting for after eight years of chaos.

I genuinely feel sorry for the hard working, well meaning centre right One Nation Tories, of whom there are many. They’ve seen their party transformed by a coup.

Reading this and the contribution from @Eeyore you're responding to, it's almost as if the IFS have it completely wrong and, really, all the fundamentals are in place. Nothing to see here. The policy framework is working brilliantly. There are no foreseeable problems ahead. Let's have more of the same.
I know you're both not saying that and would hope that you don't think that, but let's say I disagree with the thrust of both of your contributions.