[Albion] Is FH really performing that badly?

[DJ NOBO]

Question all you like about Fab but League position is bottom line and it’s been fine all season.
So no, he’s not doing that badly.

 

[1066familyman]

It's defence, not defense.

 

[withdeanwombat]

I’m on defence, too.

 

[1066familyman]

We currently stand 4 points better off than we did at this point last season.

And that's with a new manager and a very new squad.

I'd say, without even mentioning the numerous injuries, he's doing a fine job for his first season. I've no complaints.

 

[Deadly Danson]

I think we all probably know he's doing fine statistically and even points and position-wise for a first season and with injuries etc. I think perhaps the more important thread is the "have you enjoyed this season?" thread and this is where, on an emotional level I do struggle a bit and, at this present moment in time, I haven't seen anything that makes me look forward to next season if FH stays. But it's by no means impossible that we go on an incredible Forest-like run next season if the wind blows in the right direction making a lot of us look very stupid. In short, I suspect TB will look more at the stats and decide whether to stick or twist based on those.

 

[JBizzle]

Whilst I enjoy all these statistics being reeled out to support whatever side of the fence people sit on, it cannot be ignored that this season a significant amount of funds have been spent to upgrade the level of players in the club, compared to previous seasons.

That fact, along with what I see as rather insipid inspiration from our coach is my major concern for the near future.

Eurgh, the transfer funds thing is the sort of lazy rubbish I expect from TalkSport...

So the fact that those summer funds have been spent on Weiffer (arrived injured, then injured 751 mins played), Kadioglu (injured, 404 mins played), O'Riley (injured, 686 mins played), mins played Gruda (arrived injured, 690 mins played) Osman (loaned out), and Yalcouye (loaned out) and have played in total around the same amount of minutes as Estupinan, who himself has missed 6 matched through injury should be ignored "because we spend a load of money"? Only Rutter and Minteh have been available in the main, and Rutter is out for the season.

 

[dazzer6666]

Whilst I enjoy all these statistics being reeled out to support whatever side of the fence people sit on, it cannot be ignored that this season a significant amount of funds have been spent to upgrade the level of players in the club, compared to previous seasons.

That fact, along with what I see as rather insipid inspiration from our coach is my major concern for the near future.

What also ‘cannot be ignored’ are the injuries to players bought with that ‘significant amount’

 

[TottonSeagull]

Firstly, forgive the long post - trust me there is some interesting stuff in it!

Looking purely from a data perspective and not from what different eyes are seeing (lets face it, it's a results driven business over a season, rather than what's currently pretty to the naked eye!) when comparing the data between RDZ and FH (and obviously a bit of Potter in the 2022-23 season) the data is quite telling.

A lot has been made of our defense under FH, so looking at average goals conceded over the last 3 seasons, it's not quite as bad as the short term view of the last "x" matches, although some additional data may explain that (injuries, having no fit RBs and only 2 fit or available CBs for a few games and one of them is gash apparently)

Average Goals Conceded per game:
2022-23 = 1.39 (38 games, Potter/RDZ)
2023-24 = 1.63 (38 games, RDZ)
2024-25 = 1.61 (33 games, FH)

If we split the goals conceded between the first 19 games and the last 19 games or 14 games for this season over the last 2 seasons:

2023-24 games 1-19 = 1.74 (RDZ)
2024-25 games 1-19 = 1.47 (FH)
2023-24 games 20-38 = 1.50 (RDZ)
2023-25 games 20-33 = 1.79 (FH)

So the first half of last season our defense was performing worse than the first half of the season under FH - this has flip flopped - ironically we conceded less goals in the second half of last season, but couldn't score for love nor money (we were averaging 2 goals a game for the first half of the season and 1 goal per game for the last half!) Obviously our defense has performed worse in the second half of this season, possibly down to injuries and available personnel, but it's not performing any worse than the first half of last season under RDZ?

A lot has been made of Lewis Dunk's contribution, particularly recently. Also a lot has been made initially when Igor was dropped to accommodate a fit again Lewis and more recently, the injury to Adam Webster, which saw Lewis back in the side. This is not a dig at Lewis, he's a legend of the club, but these stats are alarming - maybe he just doesn't fit into FH's system:

Lewis has played 21 games out of 33 this season - in those games, we have conceded an average of 2.08 goals per game and picked up an average of 1.10 points per game.
In the 12 games where Lewis was absent, we have conceded an average of 1 goal per game and picked up an average of 1.95 points per game.

For balance these are the games that Lewis missed, so there can be no accusations that they were all easier games (are games against the bottom 3 easier for us anyway!)

Wolves (H)

Liverpool (A)

Man City (H)

Bournemouth (A)

Southampton (H)

Arsenal (H)

Ipswich (A)

Chelsea (H)

Southampton (A)

Bournemouth (H)

Fulham (H)

Man City (A)

Maybe FH's defensive system does work, he adapted after Chelsea, but is what the naked eye is currently seeing a consequence of his system or the players currently available - it's clear in the short term, he needs to adapt again......

Just for the hell of it, if you change our Forest drubbing from a 7-0 loss to a 2-0 loss, our average goals conceded per game would be 1.45 which is close to the number of our 2022-23 season where we made Europe!

Yep, nothing to do with the dullard Hurzeler, obviously all down to Dunky!!!

 

[Perfidious Albion]

Well, a couple of decent wins would change the mood completely. The end of season is a time to consider the position of the coaches . Right now we have to dig in and support the team , certainly not boo them, whatever the result Saturday

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Whilst I enjoy all these statistics being reeled out to support whatever side of the fence people sit on, it cannot be ignored that this season a significant amount of funds have been spent to upgrade the level of players in the club, compared to previous seasons.

That fact, along with what I see as rather insipid inspiration from our coach is my major concern for the near future.

It also cannot be ignored that he’s not been able to fully utilise these “upgrades”. Ferdi, zilch. O’Reilly, Wiffer and Rutter have or have had long spells out. And when he needs a CB he gets a rookie in Cashin!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Well, a couple of decent wins would change the mood completely. The end of season is a time to consider the position of the coaches . Right now we have to dig in and support the team , certainly not boo them, whatever the result Saturday

Correct. Save the booing for Judas and his snake-in-the-grass assistant!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Whilst I enjoy all these statistics being reeled out to support whatever side of the fence people sit on, it cannot be ignored that this season a significant amount of funds have been spent to upgrade the level of players in the club, compared to previous seasons.

That fact, along with what I see as rather insipid inspiration from our coach is my major concern for the near future.

The recruitment splurge imho has been a triumph of quantity over quality. As a much wiser man than me said in the Daily Seagull, it's like somebody's been allowed to run amok with the company credit card. Even allowing for injuries, adding a rookie manager to the mix hasn't helped much either

 

[Kit Napper]

A Newcastle supporting friend tells me that earlier this season, a huge proportion of the fans on their forum were pushing for Eddie Howe to get the sack because they were languishing in mid table. Now he has a god-like status on Tyneside. Football fans will always overreact to the last few results, it's just human nature. Tony Bloom is a statistician though and isn't going to fall for that.

 

[Blues Guitarist]

At least some of what we spent was replacing players sold, so 200 million figure is misleading.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

In 2028, that money we spent last summer, I think will look like money very well spent.

In terms of energising the supporters in the short term, it was less successful though. The jam will come. It will just take a very long time

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Yes.
Arguably, we should be higher in the table.
Injuries haven’t helped, but neither has the lack of structure for replacement players to step into.

IMO this is the weakest PL for some time, and it just feels like a chance missed.

Hopefully, he’ll reflect over the summer be given some better defensive players, and move forward.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

It also cannot be ignored that he’s not been able to fully utilise these “upgrades”. Ferdi, zilch. O’Reilly, Wiffer and Rutter have or have had long spells out. And when he needs a CB he gets a rookie in Cashin!

But some of those equally wh3n they have played, have not covered themselves in glory. (Rutter apart and perhaps Minteh to a lesser degree). Next year will be interesting if they can stay fit.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

A Newcastle supporting friend tells me that earlier this season, a huge proportion of the fans on their forum were pushing for Eddie Howe to get the sack because they were languishing in mid table. Now he has a god-like status on Tyneside. Football fans will always overreact to the last few results, it's just human nature. Tony Bloom is a statistician though and isn't going to fall for that.

Similar situation with Glasner, wasn't it? Great when he first arrived, then shitehouse at the beginning of this season, then back to amazing for the second-half of the season. Who knows what 25/26 will bring with that lot?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Ever since the dismal failure that was The Easy Six it's been relegation form overall. Injuries or no injuries, the buck stops with the manager. Much improvement needed

 

[darkwolf666]

That £200M is like a millstone around FH's neck. He didn't spend it, the club did. Combine new players not used to the PL, and a manager who isn't used to it, and we're doing ok.
Money spent means nothing, experience does.
He has had a record number of injuries.

I believe this to be the correct answer to the question!