[Football] Relegation candidates next season

[Gabbiano]

Are the established 17 clubs really that safe that it’s unlikely for any of them to get relegated in the next few seasons (as some have suggested)? And is the outlook for promoted teams that bleak?

Looking back Leicester finished 8th in 2021/22 and were relegated the following season. Forest are only in their 3rd and are looking good for the top 4 (yes they got a FFP points deduction but maybe that’s the way to do it).

It's not as bleak as everyone is making out on this thread.

The promoted teams in the last two seasons haven't really strengthened effectively, either by being frugal (Eg Luton), hamstrung by PSR (Eg Leicester, Southampton, Sheff U), naive (Burnley) or just stuck with a squad that was in League 1 two years ago (Ipswich).

Leeds and a more pragmatic Burnley I would expect to make a go of it.

But which of the established 17 look like enough of a mess to bring down? Wolves maybe, maybe a couple of others with the wrong managerial appointment. The fact that all 17 teams will have been in the PL for at least three consecutive years gives them a huge advantage and makes the job tougher.

Promoted clubs need to spend and spend cleverly. I'm not convinced this year's Championship is any stronger than last either - Leeds lost their three best players and are more competitive than last year.

 

[loz]

Loz, you've still dodged the question.
Which three teams would you nominate to be relegated EXCLUDING the teams coming up?
You said "Sorry that’s laughable" when I said my three would be West Ham, Wolves and Palace.

Who are your three teams? It's a tough question and most answers sound laughable.
Over to you @loz

I don’t know is the answer at the moment. I think it’s impossible to say until the squads are settled after the transfer window.

Like a lot are saying the premier league is almost a closed shop, Wolves have been poor this season but are still miles better than the 3 promoted teams, and West Ham not brilliant but 8 points better than wolves with Palace being 5 points better off than West Ham, with Brighton to play palace at home, Brighton could only be 5 points above palace

 

[Triggaaar]

Is Richard Keys tipping us to go down again?

 

[loz]

It's not as bleak as everyone is making out on this thread.

The promoted teams in the last two seasons haven't really strengthened effectively, either by being frugal (Eg Luton), hamstrung by PSR (Eg Leicester, Southampton, Sheff U), naive (Burnley) or just stuck with a squad that was in League 1 two years ago (Ipswich).

Leeds and a more pragmatic Burnley I would expect to make a go of it.

But which of the established 17 look like enough of a mess to bring down? Wolves maybe, maybe a couple of others with the wrong managerial appointment. The fact that all 17 teams will have been in the PL for at least three consecutive years gives them a huge advantage and makes the job tougher.

Promoted clubs need to spend and spend cleverly. I'm not convinced this year's Championship is any stronger than last either - Leeds lost their three best players and are more competitive than last year.

They also need to stop playing out from the back if they don’t have the players to do it, how many goals have Ipswich given away as did Burnley the year before….look at Everton and Forest, they don’t have the players so don’t try it all the time.

 

[Change at Barnham]

I don’t know is the answer at the moment. I think it’s impossible to say until the squads are settled after the transfer window.

Like a lot are saying the premier league is almost a closed shop, Wolves have been poor this season but are still miles better than the 3 promoted teams, and West Ham not brilliant but 8 points better than wolves with Palace being 5 points better off than West Ham, with Brighton to play palace at home, Brighton could only be 5 points above palace

The "Sorry that’s laughable" comment still grates when you're not prepared to nominate three teams yourself.
All of us will know more after the transfer window and managerial merry-go-round has concluded.

Mind the splinters on the fence.
Three teams please (it's very hard not to look silly).

 

[Professor Plum]

If, as seems likely, Forest get to the CL, I think they’ll plummet down the league. Just look at what happened to Newcastle and Villa, and they were both more robust than Forest IMO. That doesn’t mean I think Forest would get relegated but that could happen the season after.

It’s hard to think of any obvious relegation candidates among the existing PL members so if it’s going to happen it will need a combination of unknown and unpredictable circumstances eg losing a coach and cocking up the replacement, possibly a points deduction, unlucky with injuries, transfers that don’t work out etc. Who knows? Most vulnerable would seem to be Wolves but there are other possibilities especially those likely to lose coaches and star players.

As for the promoted clubs, I’m a contrarian as usual. I lived in Yorkshire for quite a few years and still have friends there we visit most years. I’d like Leeds to go up and, now that Red Bull are involved, I think they can survive. Though at who's expense? No idea.

 

[Triggaaar]

But which of the established 17 look like enough of a mess to bring down? Wolves maybe, maybe a couple of others with the wrong managerial appointment. The fact that all 17 teams will have been in the PL for at least three consecutive years gives them a huge advantage and makes the job tougher.

It's difficult to predict, but since we were promoted in 2017, only half of the PL teams have avoided relegation every year.

 

[loz]

The "Sorry that’s laughable" comment still grates when you're not prepared to nominate three teams yourself.
All of us will know more after the transfer window and managerial merry-go-round has concluded.

Mind the splinters on the fence.
Three teams please (it's very hard not to look silly).

Sorry it grates on you, but you said you would put money on Wolves, West Ham and Palace going down.

That’s fair enough it’s your money, I personally think it’s very unlikely almost laughable and I would love to see the odds on that.

As said I can’t guess on the 3 teams going down, but my 3 teams to be relegated, Man united, Chelsea, and Man City would be my hope but I am not putting any money on it.

 

[Gabbiano]

It's difficult to predict, but since we were promoted in 2017, only half of the PL teams have avoided relegation every year.

Over 8 years that's still a lot of teams.

With three plus consecutive years in the PL you can really consolidate your team - this was the point at which we switched from survival mode under Hughton to building more strategically under Potter.

There are less "unsteady" teams around now as a result, if that makes sense. No second season syndromes. It will rely on an established team having a collapse; you could perhaps argue that that's always the case, but there are fewer obvious targets now for promoted clubs to benchmark against, than there were when we were promoted.

 

[Triggaaar]

There are *less "unsteady" teams around now as a result, if that makes sense. No second season syndromes. It will rely on an established team having a collapse; you could perhaps argue that that's always the case, but there are fewer obvious targets now for promoted clubs to benchmark against, than there were when we were promoted.

Yeah I agree with you, the teams staying up this year are well established, which will make it difficult for the teams coming up. But if one of them spends a bit they have a chance of staying up if one of the rest of us have a bad season.

* fewer

 

[Terry Connor]

Teams often struggle initially when moving stadia. Everton have an ordinary squad and whilst they have had a Moyes bounce, it wouldn't surprise me to see them struggle again next season.

 

[Beanstalk]

I was just thinking, assuming the bottom three are relegated, are there any teams in the Premier league now who might offer some hope to any teams coming up?

To me, none of the rest of the teams look like they're remotely bad enough to struggle. I do wonder about Brentford if they lose a couple of key players, but they're too well run. Wolves will be better next season - they've been far too good to worry about relegation as it is.

I'm going to whisper this one quietly: how about Spurs? They are well run commercially but on the pitch they are absolutely clueless. Sadly, they'd still have to drop off massively to find themselves in any more trouble than Wolves were this season.

Think you're being awfully kind to Wolves. Had any of the bottom three this season performed at a Premier League level, they'd be down comfortably.

Cunha has the release clause in his new contract and expected to leave having delivered them another season in the top-flight. That's a third of their goals in the Premier League this season that they'll have to replace immediately. More importantly, his goal contributions have delivered 20 of their 26 points so far this season.

All it would take is one of the sides (a particularly defensive Burnley would be my best bet) to get to 35 next season and they'll be gone. .

 

[Hovegull]

Teams often struggle initially when moving stadia. Everton have an ordinary squad and whilst they have had a Moyes bounce, it wouldn't surprise me to see them struggle again next season.

I think Everton will go on to be even stronger next season. Moyes will get them sitting comfortably mid table again.

 

[Toongull]

They’ll absolutely be selling talent but I think they are copying another south coast club’s transfer market techniques.

They will do it in a strategic way and will absolutely not lose most of their squad. I’d guess it would be a maximum of 3 players for £100m+. Perhaps these:

Dean Huijsen​

Justin Kluivert​

Antoine Semenyo​

They have fully formed succession plans in place which I imagine, will guarantee them a top 10 finish next season.

Cherries announce signing of young forward from Lorient

The Cherries have announced the signing of Eli Junior Kroupi from French side Lorient, with the 18-year-old forward set to go back on loan to the…

www.bournemouthecho.co.uk

Very poor judgement to underestimate this lot. Thank goodness the likes of Bloom and Hürzeler don’t!

I think they’ll struggle more if and when they lose Iraola to a bigger club.

 

[Javeaseagull]

I think Joe Lewis has no influence on Spurs as his control was passed into a family trust which he has not involvement in since 2022. Speculation is that his family want shot of it and if they sell then Levy will probably go to.

Levy is Joe Lewis Son-in-Law which means it's all in the family.

 

[Jim in the West]

It's not as bleak as everyone is making out on this thread.

The promoted teams in the last two seasons haven't really strengthened effectively, either by being frugal (Eg Luton), hamstrung by PSR (Eg Leicester, Southampton, Sheff U), naive (Burnley) or just stuck with a squad that was in League 1 two years ago (Ipswich).

Except Ipswich had the highest net spend in the EPL (after us) last summer - £109m....and Southampton spent over £100m. I think the problem for promoted clubs now is that there's a core of at least 15 Premier League clubs who have built up their squads over the past 5 or 10 years, and the "newbies" can't hope to compete with just one season of heavy investment. They need to be VERY clever with their recruitment (including the manager) and probably also get lucky that an established team has a complete mare (eg: in our first season West Brom collapsed, after being a mid-table team for 6 or 7 seasons).

 

[Pavilionaire]

6th - 10th bracket?

You're miles off that, even without the plump Neighbours icon running things. How many of your team would get into the Bournemouth first XI, for example? Two at most I would guess.

I think if you break the Spurs team down individually and sold them then I think they'd all go to elite clubs and for good money too.

A 1st XI of Vicario, Porro, Udogie, Romero, Van De Ven, Bentancur, Bergvall, Kulusevski, Son, Maddison and Solanke under a proper coach would be 6th-10th, depending upon their defensive set-up. However, Ange has fallen off a cliff in 24/25, and his squad seems to pick up a lot of injuries too, so there are question marks about training and recovery.

He will be sacked, but I can't see him do a Nuno Espirito Santo and being successful in the Prem with another club.

 

[drew]

Levy is Joe Lewis Son-in-Law which means it's all in the family.

Isn't the trust run by two independent trustees though?

 

[Professor Plum]

I think Everton will go on to be even stronger next season. Moyes will get them sitting comfortably mid table again.

I agree. The combination of Moyes and the new stadium will serve them well. Not title-challenging obviously but mid-table and safe.

 

[Javeaseagull]

Isn't the trust run by two independent trustees though?

Presumably but I always thought that Spurs calling for him to go was hilarious. When your father in law is the boss you should be bullet proof shirley? Not ITK at all but that is my view as an outsider.