[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Not a crypto comment.

Buffett just got another thing correct. In December Berkshire Hathaway had cash reserves of 30%, a 34 year high. It's felt in readiness for a huge plunge in stocks especially stock techs. Which is here!

Probably anticipated Emperor Trump crashing the US economy

 

[Seagull58]

Stock markets have been falling like a stone for 3 weeks, way beyond the 'Magnificent 7' tech giants. Reality has hit home that Trump's tariffs and trade wars will hurt most businesses and people.

The lucky would've sold higher risk equities and all crypto just before then. If not, the age old dilemma is to sit out, or sell, wait for markets to fall by circa double this and then buy in again.

This a lesson that crypto is not the safe haven in an equities bull market or global troubles that some portrayed it as a month ago. It is not the new

@MODS can you please change the title to "RIP cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc.)"?

@MODS definitely time to change the thread title.

 

[Professor Plum]

Stock markets have been falling like a stone for 3 weeks, way beyond the 'Magnificent 7' tech giants. Reality has hit home that Trump's tariffs and trade wars will hurt most businesses and people.

The lucky would've sold higher risk equities and all crypto just before then. If not, the age old dilemma is to sit out, or sell, wait for markets to fall by circa double this and then buy in again.

This a lesson that crypto is not the safe haven in an equities bull market or global troubles that some portrayed it as a month ago. It is not the new gold (dream).

Have they be falling like a stone? As always it depends on your investment horizon. If you were just about to empty your accounts to buy your dream home, you'll take a hit. If like me, you're just drifting along into oblivion, the downturn is of no consequence. My main investment account is 3.8% down compared to its highest point a few weeks back. But that high was 18% up over the figure when I last put my ISA allowance in, in March 2023. So taking a longer term view, as you should, the recent volatility is just a bit of noise. Mind you, it helps to own a chunk of British Aerospace which has done well from the Trump volatility.

 

[Weststander]

Have they be falling like a stone? As always it depends on your investment horizon. If you were just about to empty your accounts to buy your dream home, you'll take a hit. If like me, you're just drifting along into oblivion, the downturn is of no consequence. My main investment account is 3.8% down compared to its highest point a few weeks back. But that high was 18% up over the figure when I last put my ISA allowance in, in March 2023. So taking a longer term view, as you should, the recent volatility is just a bit of noise. Mind you, it helps to own a chunk of British Aerospace which has done well from the Trump volatility.

US markets, which comprise 50% of the global total market capitalisation, are down 9% in three weeks. With no sign of stopping. We’re in a major correction exacerbated by Trump’s Joseph Chamberlain view on trade.

It’s interesting the different investment strategies here. I’m party to numbers managed by City experts for clients. They sell just before or more likely as these bear markets start, with a close eye on global events. Then plan to capitalise when prices are far lower. Most punters sit it out.

 

[dazzer6666]

US markets, which comprise 50% of the global total market capitalisation, are down 9% in three weeks. With no sign of stopping. We’re in a major correction exacerbated by Trump’s Joseph Chamberlain view on trade.

It’s interesting the different investment strategies here. I’m party to numbers managed by City experts for clients. They sell just before or more likely as these bull markets start, with a close eye on global events. Then plan to capitalise when prices are far lower. Most punters sit it out.

We’re in a bear market, not a bull…….

Most punters will sit it out - as they should. ’Time not timing’ applies for the majority, particularly if not in direct equities. The major US indices are still close to 10% up over a 12 month period and daft amounts over 5 years…….

 

[Weststander]

Most punters will sit it out - as they should. ’Time not timing’ applies for the majority, particularly if not in direct equities. The major US indices are still close to 10% up over a 12 month period and daft amounts over 5 years…….

Newsnight just covered the falling markets. Trump’s administration are now reframing this as the beginning of a necessary recession, to eventually shrink the US government and cut imports.

 

[RandyWanger]

Newsnight just covered the falling markets. Trump’s administration are now reframing this as the beginning of a necessary recession, to eventually shrink the US government and cut imports.

Don't the US have trillions of dollars worth of debt that needs to be re financed this year? So I'm sure some manipulation to reduce rates will be beneficial to the US in the longer term... Maybe I am a conspiracy theorist.

Mindset depends when you entered the market. If you FOMOed into the market in December 2024, you'll be feeling pretty pants right now, if you got in in 2016, sold late in 2021 to fund a house purchase and re entered the market in 2023 after a nice brucy bonus and DCAed up since, you'll be feeling pretty smug right now.

 

[chickens]

It does feel to me as though the idea of cryptocurrency as an “investment” has run its course.

While there may still be good reasons for holding them if e.g. you’re building something on ICP, the idea that the number goes up by 1000%+ now seems fanciful.

Those who wanted to invest have invested, the Trump bazooka that was supposed to send prices soaring has turned out to be the pea-shooter of “we’ll keep what law-enforcement seize.” Those who wanted to build “smart contract” applications have done so, without moving the market.

The numbers are just trickling lower week after week, and I suspect will continue to do so, I don’t see a realistic prospect of exponential growth for any of the projects out there. I just don’t see where major inflow demand is coming from.

 

[RandyWanger]

Theres a massive spring sale on...

 

[Weststander]

To use one example, much loved Ethereum is the price it was in March 2021, before the rollercoaster began.

Genuinely well done to the nsc crypto folk who sold all their crypto in December, going by posts here are a couple of very savvy individuals here who openly said all along they were only in it for short term enrichment .

I still see no evidence that any crypto is the new gold or USD.

A question, when to pile in at the next trough, before ascent and which crypto would you buy?

 

[schmunk]

While there may still be good reasons for holding them if e.g. you’re building something on ICP,

 

[beorhthelm]

A question, when to pile in at the next trough, before ascent and which crypto would you buy?

when, at the bottom of course. what, RWA and probably gaming (several projects near release - could bring about a wave or tread on each other).

if dipping onchain, Keeta is a recent quiet launch token for payments, reportedly very fast and backed by someone called Eric Schmidt who used to do something or other.

 

[beorhthelm]

crypto bros may observe BTC did not follow the market down today, and most the major alts bounced from Thursday. initial reaction to China tariff news got bought up.

 

[chickens]

crypto bros may observe BTC did not follow the market down today, and most the major alts bounced from Thursday. initial reaction to China tariff news got bought up.

It’s hardly a safe haven though. As @Weststander pointed out earlier in the thread, not the secure and stable gold alternative that many have painted BTC as. From £88,500 to £64,800 in three months is only strong and stable in the same way as David Cameron’s Conservative government was strong and stable.

 

[tstanbur]

It’s hardly a safe haven though. As @Weststander pointed out earlier in the thread, not the secure and stable gold alternative that many have painted BTC as. From £88,500 to £64,800 in three months is only strong and stable in the same way as David Cameron’s Conservative government was strong and stable.

You seem to be very focused on short term gains, zoom out and be more patient.

 

[pb21]

It’s hardly a safe haven though. As @Weststander pointed out earlier in the thread, not the secure and stable gold alternative that many have painted BTC as. From £88,500 to £64,800 in three months is only strong and stable in the same way as David Cameron’s Conservative government was strong and stable.

BTC has been around ~15 years, gold 1,500+ years, give it a bit of time...

 

[chickens]

You seem to be very focused on short term gains, zoom out and be more patient.

I’m more focused on the fact that like all the best Ponzi schemes, the token has to be continually attracting new inflows of capital to maintain or increase the price. It relies on the twin pillars of finite supply and fresh demand to drive the value upward. I suspect as fresh generations are born and reach adulthood, there may be “fresh blood” willing to speculate, but I’m not convinced that there are many people out there now who are curious about BTC and yet haven’t already jumped in.

There are other tokens out there that purport to have utility, although I note that a decade has gone by and there is still no app utilising a token in a way that has noticeably increased demand for that token, or driven sustained value growth. Most of the market seems to mirror what Bitcoin’s doing.

My position remains that while uses may be found for blockchain or hash graph technology, there’s absolutely nothing to say that the individuals or organisations using such technology need to use any existing token or network. The white papers are out there, and there are enough competing networks out there to show that you could build your own bespoke for your use case rather than piggy back on an existing network and expose yourself to having vital code outside your control and somebody else’s token price volatility.

In short, while some tokens have potential utility, most of the market is made up of grifters and those hoping the number goes up due to “greater fool” theory. If making a profit on an investment effectively relies on arbitrary market timing, it’s not an investment in the sense of funding human endeavour or enterprise of any kind, it’s a speculative spin of the roulette wheel, where success depends on timing your entry, a ready supply of greater fools, and timing your exit.

Money can be made, but it’s gambling, not investment.

 

[tstanbur]

I’m more focused on the fact that like all the best Ponzi schemes, the token has to be continually attracting new inflows of capital to maintain or increase the price. It relies on the twin pillars of finite supply and fresh demand to drive the value upward. I suspect as fresh generations are born and reach adulthood, there may be “fresh blood” willing to speculate, but I’m not convinced that there are many people out there now who are curious about BTC and yet haven’t already jumped in.

There are other tokens out there that purport to have utility, although I note that a decade has gone by and there is still no app utilising a token in a way that has noticeably increased demand for that token, or driven sustained value growth. Most of the market seems to mirror what Bitcoin’s doing.

My position remains that while uses may be found for blockchain or hash graph technology, there’s absolutely nothing to say that the individuals or organisations using such technology need to use any existing token or network. The white papers are out there, and there are enough competing networks out there to show that you could build your own bespoke for your use case rather than piggy back on an existing network and expose yourself to having vital code outside your control and somebody else’s token price volatility.

In short, while some tokens have potential utility, most of the market is made up of grifters and those hoping the number goes up due to “greater fool” theory. If making a profit on an investment effectively relies on arbitrary market timing, it’s not an investment in the sense of funding human endeavour or enterprise of any kind, it’s a speculative spin of the roulette wheel, where success depends on timing your entry, a ready supply of greater fools, and timing your exit.

Money can be made, but it’s gambling, not investment.

The BTC price is now largely driven by institutions, not retail having a punt.

Interesting you’re choosing to post these opinions in the worst week for stocks since the Covid crash - meanwhile Bitcoin has held very strong over the last few days in comparison.

Trump tariffs: Worst week for US stocks since Covid crash as China retaliates

The US president, who has vowed to remake the global trade order, dismissed concerns, noting the US jobs market is strong.

www.bbc.com

Analyst ‘genuinely shocked’ Bitcoin’s price isn’t crashing like stocks

Donald Trump’s tariff war has sent financial assets into disarray. Bitcoin has remained staunchly above $83,000, while gold is down 2.5%. “Genuinely shocked,” said Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart.

www.dlnews.com

 

[chickens]

The BTC price is now largely driven by institutions, not retail having a punt.

Interesting you’re choosing to post these opinions in the worst week for stocks since the Covid crash - meanwhile Bitcoin has held very strong over the last few days in comparison.

Trump tariffs: Worst week for US stocks since Covid crash as China retaliates

The US president, who has vowed to remake the global trade order, dismissed concerns, noting the US jobs market is strong.

www.bbc.com

Analyst ‘genuinely shocked’ Bitcoin’s price isn’t crashing like stocks

Donald Trump’s tariff war has sent financial assets into disarray. Bitcoin has remained staunchly above $83,000, while gold is down 2.5%. “Genuinely shocked,” said Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart.

www.dlnews.com

They were my opinions before the oversized Oompa Loompa unleashed his tariffs, and they remain my opinions after.

If you’re trying to paint Bitcoin as a safe haven, then I would compare it to charts of gold and/or short-dated bonds. They will show you what a safe haven looks like, with a genuine inrush of demand.

 

[tstanbur]

They were my opinions before the oversized Oompa Loompa unleashed his tariffs, and they remain my opinions after.

If you’re trying to paint Bitcoin as a safe haven, then I would compare it to charts of gold and/or short-dated bonds. They will show you what a safe haven looks like, with a genuine inrush of demand.

Look at any 5 year period in the history of Bitcoin. Seems pretty safe to me.