[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Pevenseagull]

I can't believe Ukraine would sign a minerals deal with the US - they ARE on Russia's side. Just don't do it

It is now absolutely clear that the minerals rights deal is a protection racket without the protection bit.

 

[raymondo]

Agreed. We’re so used to the Americans providing the leadership and strength that we’re still seeing current events through that lens.

The reality is that their recent bluster isn’t supported by genuine substance.

This is an excellent segment from Times Radio yesterday with Prof Scott Lucas which explores just that. Gives me a lot more confidence that Trump can’t just have his way.

He also offers fulsome praise for Zelenskyy, rightly so.

I've finally watched the whole video - probably the best I've seen on Times Radio.
Times trots out too many IMO, and I don't get much from them, as well as getting annoyed when the camera pans to the journo who sits there and chews his pen .
But the Prof was great - excellent insight and clearly explained

 

[raymondo]

Agreed. I'm not a big fan of telling Trump to F off, even though that is of course the natural response. We should keep him onside publicly, while quietly pursing what is in the best interests of the UK.

We are indeed in a much weaker position than Europe, as we no longer have a seat at the EU table. Amongst other things, this means we have no input regarding the allocation of the EU funding of 800 billion Euros for defence infrastructure and manufacturing over the next five years. We are still a member of Nato of course.

While I am a remainer and like nothing more than bashing the Brexiteers, no-one, remainer or Brexiteer, could have foreseen the extraordinary changing of sides by Trump.
So I don't attach any blame to the Brexiteers for this. It was never on anyone's radar.

Nevertheless, it is an unfortunate byproduct of Brexit that Britain is in an uncomfortable and vulnerable position, without the US umbrella, and on the outside of the EU, looking in. In the coming years, we may find ourselves rather more reliant on the kindness of strangers (Europeans) than we thought.

And sadly caught between 'loyalties' to Europe and/or the US, encouraging fudges and muddled thinking.

 

[raymondo]

Footage of Russia trying and failing to shoot down a Ukrainian drone hovering over the huge Alabuga drone production facility - IIUC Ukraine did strike the target but I'm awaiting details

 

[raymondo]

"A clear and fair proposal"
How does Vance sleep at night? Ah yes, the Pope absolved him of sin - lucky guy..

 

[fly high]

"A clear and fair proposal"
How does Vance sleep at night? Ah yes, the Pope absolved him of sin - lucky guy..

That is what they call mediating!!!! Thought you had to have fair & free discussions between two sides for it to be mediation. Trump/Vance/Witless talk to one side only then say to the wronged side "agree or else".

 

[raymondo]

That is what they call mediating!!!! Thought you had to have fair & free discussions between two sides for it to be mediation. Trump/Vance/Witless talk to one side only then say to the wronged side "agree or else".

I still find it hard to understand that so many of Trump's cronies just spout his (and it's Putin's)shit narrative for him
Do they really feel the same? Have no conscience or sense of right and wrong? So scared of losing their nice salary and pension? Afraid of being killed by the new Mafia if they gainsay?
I don't care how any of them behave in the future, Rubio, Waltz, even Kellog to a large degree - they are all tarred and worthless as 'allies' and people.

 

[raymondo]

I know a few of you guys on here have family out there, so have a lot more of a stake in this than some of us, but we've all been in this together, threadwise, and I hope politically and militarily in hope since day 1. I can categorically say, when this started, the one scenario that I would never have predicted was the US coming down on the side of Russia. This literally blows my mind, the cold War enemy, sucked up to, the democratic nation, invaded, now abandoned unless it signs over its mineral wealth. I'm still struggling to come to terms with it, but as been said, we all have to recalibrate how we see the US. Once the guarantee of our security, now a friend of war criminals, at least in the highest circles of power. I wonder whether the defence/security establishment of the US will roll with this new reality or fight back.

Well said , thanks.
It's hard to recalibrate - I hope that our UK and European leaders have done (not forgetting Australia, Japan, South Korea...), that's what they get paid to do.

Let's not forget that in effect the US and Russia led the Cold War (happy to be corrected).
One would hope there's a limit to what the US defence establishment would accept, getting into bed with Russia, but remember Trump will appoint the next loyalist once he realises Hegseth is really shit.
I'm still hoping for a US military coup (unlikely I know).

 

[raymondo]

I hope Ukraine has the coordinates already

 

[SouthSaxon]

I agree with you on the sheer volume of output. It is hit and miss as a result, but they’ve had some good contributors who are far more expert than the regular journalists.

In general, those experts are where the value comes from, more so than podcasts with a regular cast of mainstream journos. The latter are more inclined to the shocked incredulity that encourages the “4D chess masterplan” trap.

There are some exceptions - TRiP US benefits from Scaramucci (not a journalist, definitely an expert on Trump) and Lewis Goodall is streets ahead of Maitlis and Sopel on the Newsagents when it comes to Russia/Ukraine.

 

[SouthSaxon]

While I am a remainer and like nothing more than bashing the Brexiteers, no-one, remainer or Brexiteer, could have foreseen the extraordinary changing of sides by Trump.
So I don't attach any blame to the Brexiteers for this. It was never on anyone's radar.

Nevertheless, it is an unfortunate byproduct of Brexit that Britain is in an uncomfortable and vulnerable position, without the US umbrella, and on the outside of the EU, looking in. In the coming years, we may find ourselves rather more reliant on the kindness of strangers (Europeans) than we thought.

It couldn’t have been foreseen exactly what would happen, but it could have been foreseen that Brexit would make Britain generally weaker and more vulnerable geopolitically.

Cameron should’ve known better than to crack the can of worms open but his arrogance got the better of him.

On the exposed position we find ourselves in, this from Chris Grey is an interesting (albeit wordy) read.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It couldn’t have been foreseen exactly what would happen, but it could have been foreseen that Brexit would make Britain generally weaker and more vulnerable geopolitically.

Cameron should’ve known better than to crack the can of worms open but his arrogance got the better of him.

On the exposed position we find ourselves in, this from Chris Grey is an interesting (albeit wordy) read.

Good article from Chris Grey there, and interesting comments below it.

I think the fact Trump has backed down on tariffs and - to an extent - is almost at the point of throwing in the towel on the Ukraine/Russia war shows that even a single powerful country like the USA cannot fight against the tide of globalism, the global economy and global opinion.

Moreover, if he can't make his version of Brexit work in today's world then our Brexit is doomed.

Brexit was counter-intuitive; to go it alone just as new trade blocs like BRICS were emerging and populists like Trump were running for office was asking for trouble further down the line.

If the UK really wants to help the Ukraine and have a better defence against Russia then it will need to get closer to the EU and - to an extent - closer to China. A trade deal with the USA does NOT help that. China has already made noises about secondary tariffs against friends of the USA, so whatever we might gain from the USA could be outweighed by what we lose if China doesn't like our deal with them.

 

[raymondo]

I agree with you on the sheer volume of output. It is hit and miss as a result, but they’ve had some good contributors who are far more expert than the regular journalists.

In general, those experts are where the value comes from, more so than podcasts with a regular cast of mainstream journos. The latter are more inclined to the shocked incredulity that encourages the “4D chess masterplan” trap.

There are some exceptions - TRiP US benefits from Scaramucci (not a journalist, definitely an expert on Trump) and Lewis Goodall is streets ahead of Maitlis and Sopel on the Newsagents when it comes to Russia/Ukraine.

That's fair - I was a bit hasty to say 'I don't get much from them' on reflection. Many are good and, as you say, far more useful than mainstream media.
I guess I skip a few because of the volume, and sods law I skipped the excellent one from the Prof!! Thankfully you caught it .

 

[raymondo]

I think we all knew as soon as Trump went for a second term, he’d buddy up to Putin.

I didn't know for sure, but blimey Trump has 100% gone for being Putin's Apprentice. Shocking stuff.
(not shocked by anything the Trump administration does anymore)

 

[raymondo]

“Why won’t you Ukrainians just give up so I can have my Nobel peace prize like Obama?”

Yes, and "please just capitulate so you can die out of the world's view...these videos of your deaths under shelling are quite inconvenient you know"

 

[raymondo]

They never effing stop do they? Blame all previous presidents etc (some truth in some of it) and blame Zelenskiy again again.The deal is nowhere close, because Putin doesn't want one and your negotiators are just shit.
Oh, and whatever you do, DO NOT blame Putin!

 

[The Clamp]

I didn't know for sure, but blimey Trump has 100% gone for being Putin's Apprentice. Shocking stuff.
(not shocked by anything the Trump administration does anymore)

Yeah. Agreed actually. Nobody had a clue how far he’d get in with Putin.

 

[Mellotron]

As others have no doubt said, everyone in the media needs to stop calling it a "deal". It's not a deal. It's trying to force Ukraine to surrender, no more, no less.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

They never effing stop do they? Blame all previous presidents etc (some truth in some of it) and blame Zelenskiy again again.The deal is nowhere close, because Putin doesn't want one and your negotiators are just shit.
Oh, and whatever you do, DO NOT blame Putin!

The final act of two very desperate men.
Zelensky has given them two fingers with his crimea comment and they are desperately trying to shame him into doing what they want. This is a prime example of what happens when you surround yourself with ‘yes’ people and have a complete over estimation of your own power.
Trump et al were expecting Zelensky to capitulate because, of course, he isn’t as clever as Trump and Vance. When you’ve been fighting a war for three years these to twats aren’t going to worry him. The way they treated him in the oval office showed their true colours so Zelensky wasn’t going to even consider toeing the line. I actually think he has been pulling their chain right up to the crimea comment.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

The final act of two very desperate men.
Zelensky has given them two fingers with his crimea comment and they are desperately trying to shame him into doing what they want. This is a prime example of what happens when you surround yourself with ‘yes’ people and have a complete over estimation of your own power.
Trump et al were expecting Zelensky to capitulate because, of course, he isn’t as clever as Trump and Vance. When you’ve been fighting a war for three years these to twats aren’t going to worry him. The way they treated him in the oval office showed their true colours so Zelensky wasn’t going to even consider toeing the line. I actually think he has been pulling their chain right up to the crimea comment.

You may be right, but I'd consider another explanation, namely that Trump never expected Zelensky to go for his 'deal'. What Putin most wants is the ability to continue the war unimpeded by sanctions, with Ukraine weakened and the US onside. Therefore, this whole pantomime was about establishing a pretext for the US to abandon Ukraine and restore cosy relations with Putin.